CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK FOMC in Focus A Fundamental and Technical Analysis on XAUUSD and Bitcoin by Tamas Horvath 26.01.2026 KEY POINTSGold is holding near record territory, with dips still treated as tactical opportunities as markets reprice trade fragmentation risk and a longer-duration geopolitical premium after Davos/WEF headlines.Trump’s messaging at Davos reinforced the idea that tariffs may remain a policy tool beyond economics, increasing uncertainty for inflation and global growth—supportive for gold on a medium-term basis.The main event risk is Wednesday’s FOMC (rate decision + statement + press conference). Even if the Fed holds, language on inflation progress and financial conditions can drive a large two-way move in both gold and bitcoin.Bitcoin remains more sensitive to liquidity and risk sentiment than geopolitics. Technically, it is still in a vulnerable structure unless it reclaims key resistance levels. Markets enter the week with strong market beliefs but limited clarity on how policy will actually respond. Right now, markets are running on a few high- confidence stories: Tariffs are back as a policy tool (Trump / Davos messaging) Trade fragmentation is structural, not temporary Gold benefits from geopolitical and inflation uncertainty The Fed will eventually ease, but timing is unclear Davos/WEF underscored a world moving toward bloc-based trade and strategic bargaining, while Trump’s remarks reinforced tariffs as an active lever in policy and negotiation, increasing uncertainty around inflation, growth, and the global trade framework. This matters because tariffs can reintroduce sticky inflation risk while simultaneously weighing on growth—an environment where gold tends to outperform as a hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical duration risk. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Geopolitics Re-Priced, Trend Structure Intact Macro calendar that matters (Gold-sensitive)The highest-impact sequence is clustered around the Fed: Mon: Durable Goods (headline + core) Tue: ADP Employment FOMC decision + statement + press conference (+ Trump speaks earlier) Fri: PPI (inflation pulse into the next Fed narrative) Gold remains in a structurally constructive regime: price is holding near all-time highs on the chart below, with the market repeatedly showing that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than accelerating into a trend reversal.What changed recently is not just “rates”—it’s regime perception. Davos/WEF made the direction of travel clearer: trade is increasingly used as an instrument of strategic policy, and recent reporting highlighted that tariff threats tied to the Greenland dispute were part of the week’s market-set narrative—even if some measures were later softened. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) TECHNICALS Upside extension: a clear continuation path opens toward the next psychological level of $5,000 the $5,100. Inbetween a series of stop losses could fuel even higher prices. First meaningful support: $4,947 (similar zones that has repeatedly acted as the “line in the sand” for dip buyers). Deeper supports: if Powell surprises hawkishly, the next major supports are well below the current price level, first at $4,883 then $4,777 OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — TREND INTACT, EVENT RISK ELEVATED Base case (≈50%): Consolidation near highs continues into and immediately after the FOMC, with pullbacks supported by geopolitical risk, trade-fragmentation concerns, and positioning. Volatility rises, but structure remains intact. Bullish acceleration (≈30%): Dovish-leaning language, or reduced emphasis on re-tightening risk, validates the geopolitical bid and fuels a breakout continuation toward new highs. Bearish risk (≈20%): A “higher bar for cuts” tone triggers a deeper flush as rates and the dollar react, but gold likely finds buyers faster than risk assets, as the geopolitical premium remains live. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Liquidity Proxy First; Macro Volatility Second Bitcoin is not trading like a geopolitical hedge in this regime—it is trading like a liquidity/risk sentiment instrument. That makes it especially sensitive to the Fed’s message and the rates-volatility complex.On the chart below, BTC is still operating in a technically constrained structure. Current price is well below the higher resistance shelf, and the market has not yet proven it can sustain upside traction without macro support. Key technical levels Resistance ladder: ~95.6k, then ~98.8k, then ~101.8k (R1/R2/R3 region). Support: the 90–91k region, then ~88k, then ~85.9k (S1/S2/S3 region). The structure suggests fast air-pockets if support fails, and sharp squeezes if resistance breaks—classic pre-FOMC positioning. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) BTC OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL → BEARISH BIAS WHILE BELOW KEY RESISTANCE This week is defined by a simple hierarchy: Geopolitics and trade fragmentation (Davos/WEF + tariff messaging) keep a structural bid under gold by extending the “uncertainty premium.” The FOMC on Wednesday determines whether markets can sustain risk-taking or whether financial conditions tighten again. Gold likely retains relative resilience on pullbacks; bitcoin remains more binary and liquidity-driven. Until the Fed speaks, keep positioning light, confirmation-driven, and level- respecting—the event can validate the breakout or force a sharp reset in both instruments. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK FOMC in Focus A Fundamental and Technical Analysis on XAUUSD and Bitcoin by Tamas Horvath 26.01.2026 KEY POINTSGold is holding near record territory, with dips still treated as tactical opportunities as markets reprice trade fragmentation risk and a longer-duration geopolitical premium after Davos/WEF headlines.Trump’s messaging at Davos reinforced the idea that tariffs may remain a policy tool beyond economics, increasing uncertainty for inflation and global growth—supportive for gold on a medium-term basis.The main event risk is Wednesday’s FOMC (rate decision + statement + press conference). Even if the Fed holds, language on inflation progress and financial conditions can drive a large two-way move in both gold and bitcoin.Bitcoin remains more sensitive to liquidity and risk sentiment than geopolitics. Technically, it is still in a vulnerable structure unless it reclaims key resistance levels. Markets enter the week with strong market beliefs but limited clarity on how policy will actually respond. Right now, markets are running on a few high- confidence stories: Tariffs are back as a policy tool (Trump / Davos messaging) Trade fragmentation is structural, not temporary Gold benefits from geopolitical and inflation uncertainty The Fed will eventually ease, but timing is unclear Davos/WEF underscored a world moving toward bloc-based trade and strategic bargaining, while Trump’s remarks reinforced tariffs as an active lever in policy and negotiation, increasing uncertainty around inflation, growth, and the global trade framework. This matters because tariffs can reintroduce sticky inflation risk while simultaneously weighing on growth—an environment where gold tends to outperform as a hedge against policy uncertainty and geopolitical duration risk. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Geopolitics Re-Priced, Trend Structure Intact Macro calendar that matters (Gold-sensitive)The highest-impact sequence is clustered around the Fed: Mon: Durable Goods (headline + core) Tue: ADP Employment FOMC decision + statement + press conference (+ Trump speaks earlier) Fri: PPI (inflation pulse into the next Fed narrative) Gold remains in a structurally constructive regime: price is holding near all-time highs on the chart below, with the market repeatedly showing that selling pressure is being absorbed rather than accelerating into a trend reversal.What changed recently is not just “rates”—it’s regime perception. Davos/WEF made the direction of travel clearer: trade is increasingly used as an instrument of strategic policy, and recent reporting highlighted that tariff threats tied to the Greenland dispute were part of the week’s market-set narrative—even if some measures were later softened. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) TECHNICALS Upside extension: a clear continuation path opens toward the next psychological level of $5,000 the $5,100. Inbetween a series of stop losses could fuel even higher prices. First meaningful support: $4,947 (similar zones that has repeatedly acted as the “line in the sand” for dip buyers). Deeper supports: if Powell surprises hawkishly, the next major supports are well below the current price level, first at $4,883 then $4,777 OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — TREND INTACT, EVENT RISK ELEVATED Base case (≈50%): Consolidation near highs continues into and immediately after the FOMC, with pullbacks supported by geopolitical risk, trade-fragmentation concerns, and positioning. Volatility rises, but structure remains intact. Bullish acceleration (≈30%): Dovish-leaning language, or reduced emphasis on re-tightening risk, validates the geopolitical bid and fuels a breakout continuation toward new highs. Bearish risk (≈20%): A “higher bar for cuts” tone triggers a deeper flush as rates and the dollar react, but gold likely finds buyers faster than risk assets, as the geopolitical premium remains live. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Liquidity Proxy First; Macro Volatility Second Bitcoin is not trading like a geopolitical hedge in this regime—it is trading like a liquidity/risk sentiment instrument. That makes it especially sensitive to the Fed’s message and the rates-volatility complex.On the chart below, BTC is still operating in a technically constrained structure. Current price is well below the higher resistance shelf, and the market has not yet proven it can sustain upside traction without macro support. Key technical levels Resistance ladder: ~95.6k, then ~98.8k, then ~101.8k (R1/R2/R3 region). Support: the 90–91k region, then ~88k, then ~85.9k (S1/S2/S3 region). The structure suggests fast air-pockets if support fails, and sharp squeezes if resistance breaks—classic pre-FOMC positioning. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) BTC OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL → BEARISH BIAS WHILE BELOW KEY RESISTANCE This week is defined by a simple hierarchy: Geopolitics and trade fragmentation (Davos/WEF + tariff messaging) keep a structural bid under gold by extending the “uncertainty premium.” The FOMC on Wednesday determines whether markets can sustain risk-taking or whether financial conditions tighten again. Gold likely retains relative resilience on pullbacks; bitcoin remains more binary and liquidity-driven. Until the Fed speaks, keep positioning light, confirmation-driven, and level- respecting—the event can validate the breakout or force a sharp reset in both instruments. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.