CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Expecting a Turnaround? Check This Before NFP A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 30.09.2025 KEY POINTSGovernment shutdown watch: Ongoing brinkmanship is a safe-haven tailwind for gold and a potential volatility source for risk assets; any funding lapse that dents growth expectations would also anchor yields. What to watch this week: ADP (Wed), Jobless Claims / Factory Orders (Thu), NFP (Fri), ISM Services (Fri). Technical pivot levels (gold): Resistance $3,879.64 → $4,000, support $3,717.52; momentum confirmation above last week’s $3,791.26 high. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold enters NFP week with strong upside momentum, supported by falling U.S. yields, a softer dollar, heavy official-sector buying and ETF inflows, and an elevated probability of near-term Fed rate cuts. Technically, the tape is trending; the next resistance is $3,879.64 and then the psychological $4,000. First key support sits near $3,717.52.Bitcoin remains range-bound on the daily chart. Into NFP it’s tactically bullish on easing real yields and rising rate-cut odds, despite fragile risk sentiment tied to U.S. shutdown risk. A weak labor print would likely extend the lower-real-yield impulse that supports both gold and crypto; a hot print risks a USD/real-yield rebound and a pause in the metals/crypto bid. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView) The outlook for gold remains Bullish since our last week’s analysis but longs are getting overcrowded at the new All Time Highs. A reversal is expected soon. Cooling jobs and wages into NFP keep real yields capped, a historically supportive regime for bullion. The rate-cut path plus shutdown risk further buttress safe-haven bids. Uptrend intact; momentum confirmed on a sustained hold above last week’s $3,791.26 swing high. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Forecast: Bullish on dips while the market holds above $3,830; momentum add on a clean daily/4-hour hold above $3,879; initial take-profit into $3,900.Invalidation: sustained break below $3,730. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin remains range-bound on the daily chart but constructive into NFP as macro liquidity expectations (rate-cut odds) and risk sentiment improve. A benign or weak labor print would likely extend the “lower-real-yield” impulse that benefits both gold and crypto; a hot print risks a USD/real-yield rebound and a pause in the metals/crypto bid. WHAT MATTERS NOWEvent-risk translation: A soft NFP should favor continued risk-on/“liquidity hopes,” while a hot NFP risks a USD/rates squeeze that tempers BTC’s bounce. Rates & USD matter: Lower real yields and a softer dollar typically ease financial conditions and support risk assets—including BTC. The same cut-pricing that aids gold is supportive for crypto beta into NFP. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: TradingView) BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY. Structure remains range-to-up on the broader daily view (per attached chart): successive higher swing lows since Q2, with supply layered around prior summer highs. A decisive daily close above the recent congestion would target the next major swing highs; failure would keep the range intact. BOTTOM LINE / WHAT TO WATCHGold (this week): Base case favors a break-and-extend toward $3,900–4,000 on a soft/inline labor print. A hot surprise likely delays—but does not invalidate—the larger uptrend unless support fails.Bitcoin (this week): Soft/inline NFP → attempt at the range highs; hot NFP → range persists, tactically fade rips until USD/rates settle. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Expecting a Turnaround? Check This Before NFP A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 30.09.2025 KEY POINTSGovernment shutdown watch: Ongoing brinkmanship is a safe-haven tailwind for gold and a potential volatility source for risk assets; any funding lapse that dents growth expectations would also anchor yields. What to watch this week: ADP (Wed), Jobless Claims / Factory Orders (Thu), NFP (Fri), ISM Services (Fri). Technical pivot levels (gold): Resistance $3,879.64 → $4,000, support $3,717.52; momentum confirmation above last week’s $3,791.26 high. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold enters NFP week with strong upside momentum, supported by falling U.S. yields, a softer dollar, heavy official-sector buying and ETF inflows, and an elevated probability of near-term Fed rate cuts. Technically, the tape is trending; the next resistance is $3,879.64 and then the psychological $4,000. First key support sits near $3,717.52.Bitcoin remains range-bound on the daily chart. Into NFP it’s tactically bullish on easing real yields and rising rate-cut odds, despite fragile risk sentiment tied to U.S. shutdown risk. A weak labor print would likely extend the lower-real-yield impulse that supports both gold and crypto; a hot print risks a USD/real-yield rebound and a pause in the metals/crypto bid. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView) The outlook for gold remains Bullish since our last week’s analysis but longs are getting overcrowded at the new All Time Highs. A reversal is expected soon. Cooling jobs and wages into NFP keep real yields capped, a historically supportive regime for bullion. The rate-cut path plus shutdown risk further buttress safe-haven bids. Uptrend intact; momentum confirmed on a sustained hold above last week’s $3,791.26 swing high. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Forecast: Bullish on dips while the market holds above $3,830; momentum add on a clean daily/4-hour hold above $3,879; initial take-profit into $3,900.Invalidation: sustained break below $3,730. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin remains range-bound on the daily chart but constructive into NFP as macro liquidity expectations (rate-cut odds) and risk sentiment improve. A benign or weak labor print would likely extend the “lower-real-yield” impulse that benefits both gold and crypto; a hot print risks a USD/real-yield rebound and a pause in the metals/crypto bid. WHAT MATTERS NOWEvent-risk translation: A soft NFP should favor continued risk-on/“liquidity hopes,” while a hot NFP risks a USD/rates squeeze that tempers BTC’s bounce. Rates & USD matter: Lower real yields and a softer dollar typically ease financial conditions and support risk assets—including BTC. The same cut-pricing that aids gold is supportive for crypto beta into NFP. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: TradingView) BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY. Structure remains range-to-up on the broader daily view (per attached chart): successive higher swing lows since Q2, with supply layered around prior summer highs. A decisive daily close above the recent congestion would target the next major swing highs; failure would keep the range intact. BOTTOM LINE / WHAT TO WATCHGold (this week): Base case favors a break-and-extend toward $3,900–4,000 on a soft/inline labor print. A hot surprise likely delays—but does not invalidate—the larger uptrend unless support fails.Bitcoin (this week): Soft/inline NFP → attempt at the range highs; hot NFP → range persists, tactically fade rips until USD/rates settle. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.