CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Breakout & Grind: Gold Near Highs, Dow in Up-Channel — Weekly Playbook A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 02.09.2025 Gold Price Breakout: New ALL Time High ? Gold’s August breakout is underpinned by a dovish Fed tilt, a softer dollar, and renewed investment demand from ETFs, while central banks remain consistent net buyers. Near term, the tape is momentum long into the first-week-of-month U.S. data cluster (ISM, JOLTS, ADP, NFP). The path of least resistance remains higher while pullbacks hold the recent breakout zone; upside risk accelerates on a clean test/close above the psychologically charged $3,500 handle. KEY POINTSMacro: Markets price a high likelihood of a September Fed cut; July PCE ran at ~0.2% m/m with core easing risks broadly contained—supportive for non-yielding assets.Geopolitics/policy risk: Political pressure on the Fed (e.g., the removal of Gov. Cook) adds a credibility hedge premium to gold.This week’s catalysts (cross-checked): ISM Manufacturing (Tue), JOLTS (Wed), ISM Services (Thu), and NFP (Fri, Sep 5, 08:30 ET). FED DRAMA Chair Powell’s recent emphasis on labor-market risks and softer inflation impulses keeps cuts live for September; gold tends to perform when real rates drift lower and policy credibility is questioned. Watch this week’s ISM-JOLTSADP- NFP sequence for confirmation: a weak jobs print or cooling wage growth would likely extend the dollar/yield drift and support bullion; a hot labor surprise would tighten financial conditions and invite a pullback. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView) OUTLOOK: STRONG BULLISH BIAS Buy-the-dip while above $3,405–3,415; momentum long on a daily close > $3,500. Structure: sustained higher-highs/higher-lows since mid-August; breakout above the 3,44x/3,45x shelf unlocked the $3,500 round-numbermagnet. First support: $3,415–3,405 (recent breakout retest / intraday pivotcluster). Deeper supports: $3,37x–3,36x; invalidates momentum below ~$3,31x (weekly retracement/stop-zone referenced by recent analysis). DOW JONES 30 (US30) US indices sit in a late-summer “grind-higher but jittery” regime: resilient US growth, sticky-but-cooling inflation, and a data-dependent Fed keep real yields elevated yet stable. Tariff headlines and election year policy noise add headline-gap risk; tech leadership remains concentrated and sensitive to AI capex/newsflow. Net: dips remain buyable while key supports hold, but failed breakouts near resistance are quick shorts. Technical read (2h): the chart shows a clean ascending channel since early Aug. A bull-flag resolved higher last week; price is now hovering around the weekly pivot ≈ 45,880 with R1 ≈ 46,220 / R2 ≈ 46,380 and S1 ≈ 45,625 / S2 ≈ 45,460. Channel midline capping minor advances; lower rail trends through the 45,4k–45,5k zone. Chart 2: Dow Jones 30 (US30) Outlook (Source: TradingView) OUTLOOK: CONSTRUCTIVE WHILE ABOVE 45,450 Expect buy-the-dip flows into pivot/S1; fade only if the channel is broken and cannot reclaim the pivot. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Breakout & Grind: Gold Near Highs, Dow in Up-Channel — Weekly Playbook A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 02.09.2025 Gold Price Breakout: New ALL Time High ? Gold’s August breakout is underpinned by a dovish Fed tilt, a softer dollar, and renewed investment demand from ETFs, while central banks remain consistent net buyers. Near term, the tape is momentum long into the first-week-of-month U.S. data cluster (ISM, JOLTS, ADP, NFP). The path of least resistance remains higher while pullbacks hold the recent breakout zone; upside risk accelerates on a clean test/close above the psychologically charged $3,500 handle. KEY POINTSMacro: Markets price a high likelihood of a September Fed cut; July PCE ran at ~0.2% m/m with core easing risks broadly contained—supportive for non-yielding assets.Geopolitics/policy risk: Political pressure on the Fed (e.g., the removal of Gov. Cook) adds a credibility hedge premium to gold.This week’s catalysts (cross-checked): ISM Manufacturing (Tue), JOLTS (Wed), ISM Services (Thu), and NFP (Fri, Sep 5, 08:30 ET). FED DRAMA Chair Powell’s recent emphasis on labor-market risks and softer inflation impulses keeps cuts live for September; gold tends to perform when real rates drift lower and policy credibility is questioned. Watch this week’s ISM-JOLTSADP- NFP sequence for confirmation: a weak jobs print or cooling wage growth would likely extend the dollar/yield drift and support bullion; a hot labor surprise would tighten financial conditions and invite a pullback. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView) OUTLOOK: STRONG BULLISH BIAS Buy-the-dip while above $3,405–3,415; momentum long on a daily close > $3,500. Structure: sustained higher-highs/higher-lows since mid-August; breakout above the 3,44x/3,45x shelf unlocked the $3,500 round-numbermagnet. First support: $3,415–3,405 (recent breakout retest / intraday pivotcluster). Deeper supports: $3,37x–3,36x; invalidates momentum below ~$3,31x (weekly retracement/stop-zone referenced by recent analysis). DOW JONES 30 (US30) US indices sit in a late-summer “grind-higher but jittery” regime: resilient US growth, sticky-but-cooling inflation, and a data-dependent Fed keep real yields elevated yet stable. Tariff headlines and election year policy noise add headline-gap risk; tech leadership remains concentrated and sensitive to AI capex/newsflow. Net: dips remain buyable while key supports hold, but failed breakouts near resistance are quick shorts. Technical read (2h): the chart shows a clean ascending channel since early Aug. A bull-flag resolved higher last week; price is now hovering around the weekly pivot ≈ 45,880 with R1 ≈ 46,220 / R2 ≈ 46,380 and S1 ≈ 45,625 / S2 ≈ 45,460. Channel midline capping minor advances; lower rail trends through the 45,4k–45,5k zone. Chart 2: Dow Jones 30 (US30) Outlook (Source: TradingView) OUTLOOK: CONSTRUCTIVE WHILE ABOVE 45,450 Expect buy-the-dip flows into pivot/S1; fade only if the channel is broken and cannot reclaim the pivot. ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.