CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold & Bitcoin: Gold Stabilizes, Bitcoin Struggles A Fundamental and Technical Analysis on XAUUSD and Bitcoin by Tamas Horvath 09.02.2026 KEY POINTSGold selloff was liquidity-driven, not inflation-drivenTech earnings (AI capex shock) triggered cross-asset margin callsGold was used as a liquidity source to cover equity & crypto lossesNFP and CPI are decisive catalysts, not secondary noisePositioning remains heavy, increasing reaction risk to data surprises Gold remains structurally supported on a medium-term basis, but the last two weeks confirm that this is no longer a one-directional momentum trade. The violent selloff was not a fundamental rejection of gold, but a forced, liquidity-driven unwind as institutions covered losses from aggressive drawdowns in US tech and broader risk assets.With NFP (Wednesday) and CPI (Friday) both landing this week, gold is entering a high-volatility, two-sided environment where macro data will determine whether the recent rebound is merely corrective or the beginning of a renewed trend continuation. GOLD (XAUUSD) The sharp drawdown in gold followed a classic risk-event liquidation pattern. As US tech stocks sold off aggressively, driven by earnings guidance highlighting exploding AI capex and margin compression, funds were forced to raise cash rapidly. Gold became a primary source of liquidity because it was: Deeply liquid Strongly profitable year-to-date Widely held by macro and CTA funds Alongside Bitcoin, gold was sold to: Meet margin calls Reduce portfolio VAR Rebalance into cash This explains why gold fell despite rising geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty. Crucially, this does not invalidate the bullish macro case. It confirms that gold is currently being treated as a portfolio asset first, hedge second. The rebound since then reflects: Forced selling exhaustion Short-term mean reversion Dip-buying from longer-horizon macro accounts Now, NFP and CPI will decide whether gold re-enters trend mode or remains trapped in a range. 🗓 Macro Calendar — What Matters This Week This week is dominated by US labor and inflation data: Wednesday — NFP Day Nonfarm Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings Unemployment Rate Friday — CPI Day Headline CPI (MoM & YoY) Core CPI (MoM & YoY) Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) BIAS: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, EVENT-DEPENDENT Bullish if data supports disinflation and a cooling labor market Neutral to bearish if data forces a higher-rate repricing Expect sharp volatility expansion around releases This is not a passive hold environment — it is a data-driven trading regime. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin enters this week in a fragile technical state, having failed to convert its December rebound into a durable trend. The initial recovery took the shape of a rising channel / bearish flag rather than a clean reversal structure, and last week’s selloff confirmed that downside pressure still dominates.Unlike gold, Bitcoin has behaved almost exclusively as a high-beta risk asset, amplifying moves in US equities rather than offering portfolio diversification. The same liquidity dynamics that hit gold were even more visible in BTC: when tech sold off, crypto de-leveraged aggressively.This suggests that Bitcoin is currently being traded primarily as a liquidity and sentiment proxy, not as a structural macro hedge. Funding has normalized after the latest flush, but demand remains reactive rather than conviction-led.The key question this week is whether BTC can stabilize above its current pivot zone or whether it continues to bleed lower alongside risk assets. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) BIAS: NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH WHILE BELOW RECLAIMED STRUCTURE Bearish if BTC fails to recover above former channel support Neutral only if it can hold current lows and form a visible base Volatility likely to remain elevated, especially around NFP and CPI BOTTOM LINE — GOLD & BITCOINGold is in a structural repair phase after a liquidity shock, with the medium-term thesis intact but near-term direction dependent on NFP and CPI. Bitcoin, by contrast, has lost recovery structure and remains vulnerable while trading below broken support. Until gold confirms a clean break of structure and Bitcoin decisively reclaims its former channel, patience and confirmation should outweigh anticipation — structure, not sentiment, should drive positioning. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold & Bitcoin: Gold Stabilizes, Bitcoin Struggles A Fundamental and Technical Analysis on XAUUSD and Bitcoin by Tamas Horvath 09.02.2026 KEY POINTSGold selloff was liquidity-driven, not inflation-drivenTech earnings (AI capex shock) triggered cross-asset margin callsGold was used as a liquidity source to cover equity & crypto lossesNFP and CPI are decisive catalysts, not secondary noisePositioning remains heavy, increasing reaction risk to data surprises Gold remains structurally supported on a medium-term basis, but the last two weeks confirm that this is no longer a one-directional momentum trade. The violent selloff was not a fundamental rejection of gold, but a forced, liquidity-driven unwind as institutions covered losses from aggressive drawdowns in US tech and broader risk assets.With NFP (Wednesday) and CPI (Friday) both landing this week, gold is entering a high-volatility, two-sided environment where macro data will determine whether the recent rebound is merely corrective or the beginning of a renewed trend continuation. GOLD (XAUUSD) The sharp drawdown in gold followed a classic risk-event liquidation pattern. As US tech stocks sold off aggressively, driven by earnings guidance highlighting exploding AI capex and margin compression, funds were forced to raise cash rapidly. Gold became a primary source of liquidity because it was: Deeply liquid Strongly profitable year-to-date Widely held by macro and CTA funds Alongside Bitcoin, gold was sold to: Meet margin calls Reduce portfolio VAR Rebalance into cash This explains why gold fell despite rising geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty. Crucially, this does not invalidate the bullish macro case. It confirms that gold is currently being treated as a portfolio asset first, hedge second. The rebound since then reflects: Forced selling exhaustion Short-term mean reversion Dip-buying from longer-horizon macro accounts Now, NFP and CPI will decide whether gold re-enters trend mode or remains trapped in a range. 🗓 Macro Calendar — What Matters This Week This week is dominated by US labor and inflation data: Wednesday — NFP Day Nonfarm Payrolls Average Hourly Earnings Unemployment Rate Friday — CPI Day Headline CPI (MoM & YoY) Core CPI (MoM & YoY) Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) BIAS: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, EVENT-DEPENDENT Bullish if data supports disinflation and a cooling labor market Neutral to bearish if data forces a higher-rate repricing Expect sharp volatility expansion around releases This is not a passive hold environment — it is a data-driven trading regime. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin enters this week in a fragile technical state, having failed to convert its December rebound into a durable trend. The initial recovery took the shape of a rising channel / bearish flag rather than a clean reversal structure, and last week’s selloff confirmed that downside pressure still dominates.Unlike gold, Bitcoin has behaved almost exclusively as a high-beta risk asset, amplifying moves in US equities rather than offering portfolio diversification. The same liquidity dynamics that hit gold were even more visible in BTC: when tech sold off, crypto de-leveraged aggressively.This suggests that Bitcoin is currently being traded primarily as a liquidity and sentiment proxy, not as a structural macro hedge. Funding has normalized after the latest flush, but demand remains reactive rather than conviction-led.The key question this week is whether BTC can stabilize above its current pivot zone or whether it continues to bleed lower alongside risk assets. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026) BIAS: NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH WHILE BELOW RECLAIMED STRUCTURE Bearish if BTC fails to recover above former channel support Neutral only if it can hold current lows and form a visible base Volatility likely to remain elevated, especially around NFP and CPI BOTTOM LINE — GOLD & BITCOINGold is in a structural repair phase after a liquidity shock, with the medium-term thesis intact but near-term direction dependent on NFP and CPI. Bitcoin, by contrast, has lost recovery structure and remains vulnerable while trading below broken support. Until gold confirms a clean break of structure and Bitcoin decisively reclaims its former channel, patience and confirmation should outweigh anticipation — structure, not sentiment, should drive positioning. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.