CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold & Bitcoin : FOMC InterestRate Decision A Fundamental and Technical Analysis on XAUUSD and Bitcoin by Tamas Horvath 09.12.2025 KEY POINTSGold trades near $4,217–$4,220, trapped in a tightening range as traders wait for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, projections, and Powell’s press conference (19:00–19:30 GMT). Futures continue to imply a high probability of a 25 bp cut, but recent labour strength and firm consumer spending raise the risk of a hawkish tone from Powell. Global sentiment is mixed: US indices weaker today, VIX higher, dollar stabilising. This tempers gold’s upside until the Fed clarifies the rate path. A decisive breakout is not likely before Wednesday, but volatility is building beneath the surface. Just like a rubber when extended: it hurts if it hits you. Markets enter the week with a singular focus: Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where traders widely expect another 25 bps rate cut. Futures are already pricing high conviction for easing, but—as always—the bigger risk lies in Powell’s tone, the Economic Projections, and any shift in the Fed’s inflation or labor narrative. Seasonality remains supportive—December historically carries a bullish drift—but Fed communication will decide whether this year follows the pattern or breaks it. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Event-Led, But Medium-Term Still Bullish Gold is stabilizing after the prior week’s reversal top, where price printed a new all-time high at $4,381 before correcting toward the $4,110–$4,000 region. The pullback so far resembles tactical mean-reversion, not a structural trend change. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) The primary driver is the “shutdown fallout”. After ending on November 12, the shutdown has left markets data-dependent but data-blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is still assessing when it can release delayed employment reports.The last NFP report (for August) was a very weak +22K, far missing forecasts, and was accompanied by a massive 911K downward revision for the 12 months through March 2025, suggesting the labor market was far weaker than believed. The CME FedWatch tool implies a 60.2% chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — BUY THE DIPS; LONG ONLY ABOVE $4,000. A hawkish Powell could force a deeper retest of the $3,960 floor, but unless the Fed signals a decisively restrictive path, gold retains asymmetric upside. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin enters the week trading inside a broad rising-wedge structure, compressing between higher lows but failing to break the upper trendline. Price is currently pinned near the 90,000 pivot zone, which—based on the chart—acts as the central inflection level for the next leg.The market is effectively waiting for Wednesday’s FOMC to decide direction. Until then, flows remain shallow and positioning reluctant. UPDATED BTC OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL → BEARISH BIAS WHILE BELOW 93,500 Given the wedge structure, pivot congestion, and the macro event ahead: The current price action is viewed technically as a significant correction, possibly a Wave C under Elliott Wave theory. The bias has shifted short-term to the downside, but key supports are being tested: Scenario 1 – Powell Dovish (Bullish) BTC reclaims R1 (93,425) → targets 95,800 quickly. Break above wedge resistance opens 99–101k. Probability: moderate, but needs clean liquidity injection. Scenario 2 – Powell Hawkish / “High Bar for Cuts” (Bearish) BTC loses 89k → immediate drop to 87,400, then 80–81k. Extensive liquidity pockets below may accelerate to 75k. Probability: elevated, given Fed concern about easing too aggressively. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) Gold remains in a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above the $3,960–4,000 structural base. The medium-term narrative still favors upside—real yields remain compressed, Fed easing is priced in, central-bank demand is steady, and geopolitical risk supports a hedge premium bottom line. BTC is coiling inside a rising wedge, sitting directly on the 90k pivot. With massive two-way risk into the FOMC, this is a binary setup: ➡️ Above 93.5k → retest 96k and possibly 100k➡️ Below 89k → sharp unwinding risk into 80k, then 75k Until the Fed delivers clarity, positioning light is essential. Gold remains in a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above the $3,960–4,000 structural base. The medium-term narrative still favors upside—real yields remain compressed, Fed easing is priced in, central-bank demand is steady, and geopolitical risk supports a hedge premium.Bitcoin is coiling at the 90k pivot, trapped inside a rising wedge where volatility is building ahead of the FOMC. The chart shows clean asymmetric risk :Strength only resumes above 93.5k, while a break below 89k exposes a fast air-pocket into 87k → 81k, with extension risk toward 75k if momentum accelerates. BOTTOM LINE – GOLD & BITCOIN Gold stays cautiously bullish above $3,960, with a dovish FOMC likely to support another push toward $4,300+, while a hawkish tone risks a deeper pullback.Bitcoin sits in a bearish-leaning wedge, needing a break above 93.5k to regainmomentum; below 89k, downside opens quickly toward 87k → 81k.Until the Fed speaks, keep positioning light and confirmation-driven—the FOMCwill dictate the next major move for both markets. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold & Bitcoin : FOMC InterestRate Decision A Fundamental and Technical Analysis on XAUUSD and Bitcoin by Tamas Horvath 09.12.2025 KEY POINTSGold trades near $4,217–$4,220, trapped in a tightening range as traders wait for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision, projections, and Powell’s press conference (19:00–19:30 GMT). Futures continue to imply a high probability of a 25 bp cut, but recent labour strength and firm consumer spending raise the risk of a hawkish tone from Powell. Global sentiment is mixed: US indices weaker today, VIX higher, dollar stabilising. This tempers gold’s upside until the Fed clarifies the rate path. A decisive breakout is not likely before Wednesday, but volatility is building beneath the surface. Just like a rubber when extended: it hurts if it hits you. Markets enter the week with a singular focus: Wednesday’s FOMC decision, where traders widely expect another 25 bps rate cut. Futures are already pricing high conviction for easing, but—as always—the bigger risk lies in Powell’s tone, the Economic Projections, and any shift in the Fed’s inflation or labor narrative. Seasonality remains supportive—December historically carries a bullish drift—but Fed communication will decide whether this year follows the pattern or breaks it. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Event-Led, But Medium-Term Still Bullish Gold is stabilizing after the prior week’s reversal top, where price printed a new all-time high at $4,381 before correcting toward the $4,110–$4,000 region. The pullback so far resembles tactical mean-reversion, not a structural trend change. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) The primary driver is the “shutdown fallout”. After ending on November 12, the shutdown has left markets data-dependent but data-blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is still assessing when it can release delayed employment reports.The last NFP report (for August) was a very weak +22K, far missing forecasts, and was accompanied by a massive 911K downward revision for the 12 months through March 2025, suggesting the labor market was far weaker than believed. The CME FedWatch tool implies a 60.2% chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — BUY THE DIPS; LONG ONLY ABOVE $4,000. A hawkish Powell could force a deeper retest of the $3,960 floor, but unless the Fed signals a decisively restrictive path, gold retains asymmetric upside. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin enters the week trading inside a broad rising-wedge structure, compressing between higher lows but failing to break the upper trendline. Price is currently pinned near the 90,000 pivot zone, which—based on the chart—acts as the central inflection level for the next leg.The market is effectively waiting for Wednesday’s FOMC to decide direction. Until then, flows remain shallow and positioning reluctant. UPDATED BTC OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL → BEARISH BIAS WHILE BELOW 93,500 Given the wedge structure, pivot congestion, and the macro event ahead: The current price action is viewed technically as a significant correction, possibly a Wave C under Elliott Wave theory. The bias has shifted short-term to the downside, but key supports are being tested: Scenario 1 – Powell Dovish (Bullish) BTC reclaims R1 (93,425) → targets 95,800 quickly. Break above wedge resistance opens 99–101k. Probability: moderate, but needs clean liquidity injection. Scenario 2 – Powell Hawkish / “High Bar for Cuts” (Bearish) BTC loses 89k → immediate drop to 87,400, then 80–81k. Extensive liquidity pockets below may accelerate to 75k. Probability: elevated, given Fed concern about easing too aggressively. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) Gold remains in a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above the $3,960–4,000 structural base. The medium-term narrative still favors upside—real yields remain compressed, Fed easing is priced in, central-bank demand is steady, and geopolitical risk supports a hedge premium bottom line. BTC is coiling inside a rising wedge, sitting directly on the 90k pivot. With massive two-way risk into the FOMC, this is a binary setup: ➡️ Above 93.5k → retest 96k and possibly 100k➡️ Below 89k → sharp unwinding risk into 80k, then 75k Until the Fed delivers clarity, positioning light is essential. Gold remains in a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above the $3,960–4,000 structural base. The medium-term narrative still favors upside—real yields remain compressed, Fed easing is priced in, central-bank demand is steady, and geopolitical risk supports a hedge premium.Bitcoin is coiling at the 90k pivot, trapped inside a rising wedge where volatility is building ahead of the FOMC. The chart shows clean asymmetric risk :Strength only resumes above 93.5k, while a break below 89k exposes a fast air-pocket into 87k → 81k, with extension risk toward 75k if momentum accelerates. BOTTOM LINE – GOLD & BITCOIN Gold stays cautiously bullish above $3,960, with a dovish FOMC likely to support another push toward $4,300+, while a hawkish tone risks a deeper pullback.Bitcoin sits in a bearish-leaning wedge, needing a break above 93.5k to regainmomentum; below 89k, downside opens quickly toward 87k → 81k.Until the Fed speaks, keep positioning light and confirmation-driven—the FOMCwill dictate the next major move for both markets. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.