CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK FOMC Decision: Markets Brace for a Pivotal Shift A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 16.09.2025 KEY POINTSPolicy set-up: Markets price a quarter-point cut; a three-way split (cuts vs hold vs larger cut) is possible, raising headline risk around the dot plot and Powell’s guidance. What to watch at 19:00/19:30 (GMT): Statement tone on growth / inflation, SEP dots (2025–27 path) and balance-sheet remarks. This week’s catalysts (cross-checked): ISM Manufacturing (Tue), JOLTS (Wed), ISM Services (Thu), and NFP (Fri, Sep 5, 08:30 ET). XAUUSD — fundamentals, flows, and tape Gold sits near record territory after a sharp rebound on the 1-hour chart (breakout from a falling bull flag channel, with prior resistance now acting as support). The policy mix that matters is Fed easing without a hawkish path—that cools real yields and the dollar while leaving geopolitical and policy risks(tariffs, fiscal deficits) intact, a combination gold thrives on. Central-bank buying and robust retail bar demand remain a steady (if uneven) tailwind, while speculative positioning is elevated into the event. Notably, CFTC net gold longs were last around 262k contracts, leaving some scope for a positioningshakeout if Powell sounds hawkish. GOLD (XAUUSD) Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView) The outlook for gold remains Bullish since our last week’s analysis. If there’s no significant change in FOMC expectations. This screams for a buy and the sea of stop losses just above $3,700 will bring enough liquidity when its short squeeze time. OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY Forecast: Bullish-on-dips into 3,620–3,650 while the Fed delivers a cut with “cautious ease” language. If Powell leans hawkish and real yields jump, look for fade-and-rebuild near 3,580–3,600. Long story short, dip buys all the way. U.S. INDICES (US30, US100) US30 (DOW) Price action remains constructive but sensitive to real yields. The US30(DOW) chart below shows an orderly rising channel with a successful defense of the midchannel; US100 (NASDAQ) sits near highs with momentum leadership intact. A clean cut + non-hawkish Powell would likely re-ignite the “duration/AI” bid in US100 (NASDAQ) and keep the US(30) grinding higher; however a hawkish narrative risks a quick de-rating via higher discount rates. WHAT MATTERS NOWRates path matters most: If dots/press conference imply cautious easing, equities should hold gains; if the path is dialed back, expect a growth-vs-rate tantrum. Data tape around the meeting: Retail sales, production, housing into Wednesday; claims/LEI Thursday—potential second-order catalysts. Chart 2: US30 (Dow) Outlook (Source: TradingView) OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY Base case (most likely): 25bp + “data-dependent” → US100 (NASDAQ) outperforms, US30(DOW) grinds higher; buy dips in leaders if real yields ease on the release. BOTTOM LINE / WHAT TO WATCHMarkets expect a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday.The tone of the statement, the SEP/dot plot, and Powell’s Q&A (19:00/19:30 CEST) will determine whether this is a one-off trim or the start of a cautious easing cycle. The path of real yields is the swing factor: easing real yields = bullish gold and supportive for durationheavy tech; a hawkish lean = firmer USD, choppy risk. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK FOMC Decision: Markets Brace for a Pivotal Shift A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 16.09.2025 KEY POINTSPolicy set-up: Markets price a quarter-point cut; a three-way split (cuts vs hold vs larger cut) is possible, raising headline risk around the dot plot and Powell’s guidance. What to watch at 19:00/19:30 (GMT): Statement tone on growth / inflation, SEP dots (2025–27 path) and balance-sheet remarks. This week’s catalysts (cross-checked): ISM Manufacturing (Tue), JOLTS (Wed), ISM Services (Thu), and NFP (Fri, Sep 5, 08:30 ET). XAUUSD — fundamentals, flows, and tape Gold sits near record territory after a sharp rebound on the 1-hour chart (breakout from a falling bull flag channel, with prior resistance now acting as support). The policy mix that matters is Fed easing without a hawkish path—that cools real yields and the dollar while leaving geopolitical and policy risks(tariffs, fiscal deficits) intact, a combination gold thrives on. Central-bank buying and robust retail bar demand remain a steady (if uneven) tailwind, while speculative positioning is elevated into the event. Notably, CFTC net gold longs were last around 262k contracts, leaving some scope for a positioningshakeout if Powell sounds hawkish. GOLD (XAUUSD) Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView) The outlook for gold remains Bullish since our last week’s analysis. If there’s no significant change in FOMC expectations. This screams for a buy and the sea of stop losses just above $3,700 will bring enough liquidity when its short squeeze time. OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY Forecast: Bullish-on-dips into 3,620–3,650 while the Fed delivers a cut with “cautious ease” language. If Powell leans hawkish and real yields jump, look for fade-and-rebuild near 3,580–3,600. Long story short, dip buys all the way. U.S. INDICES (US30, US100) US30 (DOW) Price action remains constructive but sensitive to real yields. The US30(DOW) chart below shows an orderly rising channel with a successful defense of the midchannel; US100 (NASDAQ) sits near highs with momentum leadership intact. A clean cut + non-hawkish Powell would likely re-ignite the “duration/AI” bid in US100 (NASDAQ) and keep the US(30) grinding higher; however a hawkish narrative risks a quick de-rating via higher discount rates. WHAT MATTERS NOWRates path matters most: If dots/press conference imply cautious easing, equities should hold gains; if the path is dialed back, expect a growth-vs-rate tantrum. Data tape around the meeting: Retail sales, production, housing into Wednesday; claims/LEI Thursday—potential second-order catalysts. Chart 2: US30 (Dow) Outlook (Source: TradingView) OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY Base case (most likely): 25bp + “data-dependent” → US100 (NASDAQ) outperforms, US30(DOW) grinds higher; buy dips in leaders if real yields ease on the release. BOTTOM LINE / WHAT TO WATCHMarkets expect a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday.The tone of the statement, the SEP/dot plot, and Powell’s Q&A (19:00/19:30 CEST) will determine whether this is a one-off trim or the start of a cautious easing cycle. The path of real yields is the swing factor: easing real yields = bullish gold and supportive for durationheavy tech; a hawkish lean = firmer USD, choppy risk. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.