CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Strikes and Payrolls — Gold’s Biggest Week Since August XAUUSD Weekly Outlook | Week of September 1–5, 2026 by Tamas Horvath 02.09.2026 KEY POINTSBias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Gold is trading near $4,430 and the uptrend from the July lows is intact. But two things are working against the bulls right now: the 2-Year Treasury yield has jumped to 4.354% — a sign traders are pricing in a more hawkish Fed — and Brent crude is back above $92 after fresh US-Iran strikes. Higher oil means higher inflation, which gives the Fed less room to cut.Iran escalated over the weekend. The US hit two rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz — the first American strike on Iran in over a month. Iran fired back with missiles at Jordan, which were intercepted. Oil spiked above $90 on the news. This is the same pattern we’ve seen all summer: strikes → oil up → markets nervous → gold gets a safe-haven bid but also faces rate headwinds from the inflation side.Friday September 5 is the big one: NFP. The forecast is 58K — compared to last month’s shocking -23K. If payrolls bounce back above 100K, the Fed hawks get new ammunition and gold could pull back toward $4,250–$4,300. If payrolls stay weak (below 80K), the case for no September hike stays solid and gold can push toward $4,600+.The 2-Year yield at 4.354% is worth watching all week. It’s the best live gauge of what the market thinks the Fed will do. If it keeps rising toward 4.5%, gold faces real pressure. If it stays flat or dips after ISM data this week, the gold uptrend remains intact. Gold starts September where it ended August: in an uptrend, above $4,400, and waiting for the next big catalyst.The metal has come a long way since July’s lows near $3,900. A negative NFP print in August, combined with a Fed that can’t hike into recession fears, gave gold the fuel it needed to break out of its six-month downtrend. Now the question is whether that rally has legs — or whether rising yields and a stronger-than-expected jobs market will drag it back down. This week, we get the answer. WHAT HAPPENED — IRAN STRIKES RETURN The weekend brought unwelcome news for anyone hoping the Iran situation was cooling off. US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. These were preparing to drop sea mines into one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes. Iran hit back fast, firing missiles at Jordan — all of which were shot down.Oil jumped above $90 a barrel on the news. Brent is now trading at $92.85 — up significantly from where it was just two weeks ago. This matters for gold because higher oil feeds directly into inflation numbers. And higher inflation means the Fed stays tighter for longer. That’s a headwind for gold, even if the geopolitical fear is also giving it a boost. The two forces are pulling in opposite directions, which is exactly why gold is moving sideways in the $4,400–$4,450 range right now rather than breaking higher.Trump also posted on social media that Iran’s Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export hub — was “being blown to smithereens.” No independent confirmation came through, but even the threat pushed oil higher. If Kharg Island is actually targeted, oil could spike toward $100 very quickly. Keep that tail risk in mind. CHART ANALYSIS — ASCENDING CHANNEL, NFP DECIDES THE NEXT MOVE XAUUSD 4H | Ascending Channel | Sep 01, 2026 | AlphaFX / TradingViewhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aiqibbZU/ The chart tells a clear story. Gold broke out of its long downtrend back in early August after that shocking -23K NFP print. Since then, it’s been making higher highs and higher lows inside a clean ascending channel (the two orange parallel lines). That’s a healthy uptrend.Right now, gold is trading around $4,430 — sitting in the middle of that channel. The upper boundary is near $4,700–$4,750, and the lower boundary is around $4,200. As long as price stays above the lower channel line, bulls are in control.Friday’s NFP is the chart’s next big trigger. The “Soft NFP” scenario (dashed arrow up) shows gold breaking toward $4,800–$4,900 if payrolls disappoint again. The “Hot NFP” scenario (arrow down) shows a drop back toward $3,900–$4,000 if the jobs market bounces back strongly.One concern: the 2-Year yield is at 4.354%, the highest it’s been since the Fed started worrying about recession. That’s unusual — yields are rising while gold is also rising. Normally they move in opposite directions. It tells you that right now,markets price in the FEDs impotence to hike rates. That can change fast if the jobs data surprises. THIS WEEK’S EVENTS — BUILD TO FRIDAY The ADP number on Wednesday is your best preview of Friday’s NFP. Last month ADP printed 71K — and NFP came in at -23K. If ADP is weak again this week, brace for another soft Friday. JOLTS on Tuesday tells you whether employers are still actively hiring or pulling back. A drop below 7M job openings would be a meaningful signal that the labour market is genuinely cooling.Watch Avg Hourly Earnings alongside the headline on Friday. If the jobs number is soft BUT wages are rising above 3.5% YoY, the Fed is still stuck — it can’t cut because of wage inflation. That would be the worst outcome for gold: weak growth AND sticky wages, with no Fed rescue in sight. Gold would likely dip, then recover as the stagflation trade reasserts itself. THE FED — HAWKISH TONE IS BACK The 2-Year Treasury yield at 4.354% is the week’s most important number that isn’t on an economic calendar. It has jumped from 4.21% just three weeks ago. That move tells you the bond market is pricing in a higher-for-longer Fed — possibly even a rate hike later this year if the data cooperates.Fed speakers have been tilting hawkish again. The pattern: oil above $90 → CPI stays elevated → Fed can’t cut → yields rise → gold faces a headwind. The counter-argument is that negative NFP prints keep hike odds low. Friday’s number will resolve that argument for at least a few weeks. If payrolls bounce to 100K+, expect the 2-Year to push toward 4.5% and gold to test the lower channel boundary around $4,200–$4,250. KEY LEVELS THREE SCENARIOS FOR FRIDAY ▸ SOFT NFP — Below 60K (40% probability): Labour market stays weak. Fed hike off the table entirely. 2-Year yield drops below 4.2%, dollar weakens. Gold breaks above $4,450 and targets $4,600 then $4,750 (upper channel). STAY LONG. Add on a clean break above $4,450.▸ IN-LINE — 60K–110K (35% probability): No big surprise. Gold stays in the $4,380–$4,500 range. The uptrend holds but there’s no new catalyst to push higher. HOLD existing positions. Use any dip to $4,350 as a re-entry point.▸ HOT NFP — Above 130K (25% probability): Jobs bounce. Fed hawks get their data. 2-Year yield jumps above 4.5%. Dollar strengthens. Gold falls toward $4,250–$4,280 — the strong demand zone. DON’T PANIC SELL at the bottom. Re-enter longs at $4,250–$4,270. The stagflation trade is still alive.Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | Hold the channel, watch Friday’s NFPSoft NFP → $4,600+ | Hot NFP → buy dip at $4,250–$4,280 | Watch 2Y yield all week THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Strikes and Payrolls — Gold’s Biggest Week Since August XAUUSD Weekly Outlook | Week of September 1–5, 2026 by Tamas Horvath 02.09.2026 KEY POINTSBias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH. Gold is trading near $4,430 and the uptrend from the July lows is intact. But two things are working against the bulls right now: the 2-Year Treasury yield has jumped to 4.354% — a sign traders are pricing in a more hawkish Fed — and Brent crude is back above $92 after fresh US-Iran strikes. Higher oil means higher inflation, which gives the Fed less room to cut.Iran escalated over the weekend. The US hit two rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz — the first American strike on Iran in over a month. Iran fired back with missiles at Jordan, which were intercepted. Oil spiked above $90 on the news. This is the same pattern we’ve seen all summer: strikes → oil up → markets nervous → gold gets a safe-haven bid but also faces rate headwinds from the inflation side.Friday September 5 is the big one: NFP. The forecast is 58K — compared to last month’s shocking -23K. If payrolls bounce back above 100K, the Fed hawks get new ammunition and gold could pull back toward $4,250–$4,300. If payrolls stay weak (below 80K), the case for no September hike stays solid and gold can push toward $4,600+.The 2-Year yield at 4.354% is worth watching all week. It’s the best live gauge of what the market thinks the Fed will do. If it keeps rising toward 4.5%, gold faces real pressure. If it stays flat or dips after ISM data this week, the gold uptrend remains intact. Gold starts September where it ended August: in an uptrend, above $4,400, and waiting for the next big catalyst.The metal has come a long way since July’s lows near $3,900. A negative NFP print in August, combined with a Fed that can’t hike into recession fears, gave gold the fuel it needed to break out of its six-month downtrend. Now the question is whether that rally has legs — or whether rising yields and a stronger-than-expected jobs market will drag it back down. This week, we get the answer. WHAT HAPPENED — IRAN STRIKES RETURN The weekend brought unwelcome news for anyone hoping the Iran situation was cooling off. US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. These were preparing to drop sea mines into one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes. Iran hit back fast, firing missiles at Jordan — all of which were shot down.Oil jumped above $90 a barrel on the news. Brent is now trading at $92.85 — up significantly from where it was just two weeks ago. This matters for gold because higher oil feeds directly into inflation numbers. And higher inflation means the Fed stays tighter for longer. That’s a headwind for gold, even if the geopolitical fear is also giving it a boost. The two forces are pulling in opposite directions, which is exactly why gold is moving sideways in the $4,400–$4,450 range right now rather than breaking higher.Trump also posted on social media that Iran’s Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export hub — was “being blown to smithereens.” No independent confirmation came through, but even the threat pushed oil higher. If Kharg Island is actually targeted, oil could spike toward $100 very quickly. Keep that tail risk in mind. CHART ANALYSIS — ASCENDING CHANNEL, NFP DECIDES THE NEXT MOVE XAUUSD 4H | Ascending Channel | Sep 01, 2026 | AlphaFX / TradingViewhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aiqibbZU/ The chart tells a clear story. Gold broke out of its long downtrend back in early August after that shocking -23K NFP print. Since then, it’s been making higher highs and higher lows inside a clean ascending channel (the two orange parallel lines). That’s a healthy uptrend.Right now, gold is trading around $4,430 — sitting in the middle of that channel. The upper boundary is near $4,700–$4,750, and the lower boundary is around $4,200. As long as price stays above the lower channel line, bulls are in control.Friday’s NFP is the chart’s next big trigger. The “Soft NFP” scenario (dashed arrow up) shows gold breaking toward $4,800–$4,900 if payrolls disappoint again. The “Hot NFP” scenario (arrow down) shows a drop back toward $3,900–$4,000 if the jobs market bounces back strongly.One concern: the 2-Year yield is at 4.354%, the highest it’s been since the Fed started worrying about recession. That’s unusual — yields are rising while gold is also rising. Normally they move in opposite directions. It tells you that right now,markets price in the FEDs impotence to hike rates. That can change fast if the jobs data surprises. THIS WEEK’S EVENTS — BUILD TO FRIDAY The ADP number on Wednesday is your best preview of Friday’s NFP. Last month ADP printed 71K — and NFP came in at -23K. If ADP is weak again this week, brace for another soft Friday. JOLTS on Tuesday tells you whether employers are still actively hiring or pulling back. A drop below 7M job openings would be a meaningful signal that the labour market is genuinely cooling.Watch Avg Hourly Earnings alongside the headline on Friday. If the jobs number is soft BUT wages are rising above 3.5% YoY, the Fed is still stuck — it can’t cut because of wage inflation. That would be the worst outcome for gold: weak growth AND sticky wages, with no Fed rescue in sight. Gold would likely dip, then recover as the stagflation trade reasserts itself. THE FED — HAWKISH TONE IS BACK The 2-Year Treasury yield at 4.354% is the week’s most important number that isn’t on an economic calendar. It has jumped from 4.21% just three weeks ago. That move tells you the bond market is pricing in a higher-for-longer Fed — possibly even a rate hike later this year if the data cooperates.Fed speakers have been tilting hawkish again. The pattern: oil above $90 → CPI stays elevated → Fed can’t cut → yields rise → gold faces a headwind. The counter-argument is that negative NFP prints keep hike odds low. Friday’s number will resolve that argument for at least a few weeks. If payrolls bounce to 100K+, expect the 2-Year to push toward 4.5% and gold to test the lower channel boundary around $4,200–$4,250. KEY LEVELS THREE SCENARIOS FOR FRIDAY ▸ SOFT NFP — Below 60K (40% probability): Labour market stays weak. Fed hike off the table entirely. 2-Year yield drops below 4.2%, dollar weakens. Gold breaks above $4,450 and targets $4,600 then $4,750 (upper channel). STAY LONG. Add on a clean break above $4,450.▸ IN-LINE — 60K–110K (35% probability): No big surprise. Gold stays in the $4,380–$4,500 range. The uptrend holds but there’s no new catalyst to push higher. HOLD existing positions. Use any dip to $4,350 as a re-entry point.▸ HOT NFP — Above 130K (25% probability): Jobs bounce. Fed hawks get their data. 2-Year yield jumps above 4.5%. Dollar strengthens. Gold falls toward $4,250–$4,280 — the strong demand zone. DON’T PANIC SELL at the bottom. Re-enter longs at $4,250–$4,270. The stagflation trade is still alive.Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH | Hold the channel, watch Friday’s NFPSoft NFP → $4,600+ | Hot NFP → buy dip at $4,250–$4,280 | Watch 2Y yield all week THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.