CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold & Bitcoin: Trading the FED Interest Rate Decision A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 27.10.2025 KEY POINTSFed in focus. The market is leaning toward another rate cut at the Oct 28–29 FOMC, with the Fed’s reaction function increasingly framed around a softer labor pulse. Powell’s tone and guidance will dictate whether the market extends risk appetite or leans back into hedges. Geopolitics & tariffs. Fresh U.S.–China tariff rhetoric keeps a hedge premium under risk assets and supports gold on dips; any escalation would amplify haven flows. Data vacuum continues. With the U.S. government still shut down, several high-impact releases remain postponed and calendars are provisional. Markets are steering by proxies such as real yields, DXY, the UST curve, and Fed guidance—rather than hard prints. Expect headline-driven moves and pockets of thin liquidity. With September CPI now published (Oct 24), the market heads into the Oct 28–29 FOMC with at least one fresh datapoint—but most other U.S. releases remain postponed and calendars provisional. In this partial-data regime, traders are leaning on real yields, the USD, and the curve while parsing Fed guidance and tariff headlines. CPI came in a touch softer than feared, which helps the “cuts-are-live” narrative; the bigger swing factor this week is Powell’s tone and any hints on balance-sheet and the pace of easing. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold is rebuilding after last week’s weekly closing price reversal top: spot printed a new record high at $4,381.44 but settled around $4,114, ending a multi-week winning streak. A confirmed follow-through lower would mark a tactical correction, not necessarily a trend change, with $3,846.50 and then $3,720.25 the next lower value zones. The fundamental backdrop still skews supportive medium-term (cuts priced, central-bank demand, geopolitical noise), but the tape is event-led for the next 72 hours. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) WHAT TO WATCH Powell (Tue) and FOMC setup: a cautious/data-impaired tone that preserves cut optionality typically eases real yields and supports dips; a hawkish surprise risks deeper mean-reversion first. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Buy the dips and long only above $4,000. Strategy: Tactical bias: Buy-the-dip while above 3,960; fade spikes only if Powell turns hawkish. Rationale: Policy uncertainty + headline risk + tariff chatter keep the hedge bid alive; without hard data, the market tends to overweight Fed tone and geopolitics—both asymmetrically supportive of gold unless Powell leans firmly restrictive. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) BTC continues to recover after the tariff-shock flush that took price down toward the $105k–$106k area before stabilising; the drop looked like policy shock → deleveraging → mechanical cascade, not a structural break. Since then, structure has been range-to-up with higher-lows rebuilding while flows (spot-ETF demand, funding/basis, on-exchange depth) improve. WHAT TO WATCH Liquidity over data: with official releases delayed, BTC trades flows and broad USD liquidity. A USD squeeze or risk-off wobble can extend pullbacks; calmer Fed tone helps ranges hold. OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY Bitcoin is rebuilding after a tariff-shock flush that followed the White House’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which sparked broad risk-off, a stronger dollar, and an $19B+ wipeout in crypto positioning before prices stabilised. In short: policy shock → deleveraging → mechanical cascade, not a structural break. The rebound since then reflects some cooling of immediate trade fears and dip-buying once forced sellers were cleared. But headline risk stays elevated: Beijing has warned it will retaliate, keeping volatility sensitive to the next tariff headline. Outlook: The chart below shows a clean transition from a multi-week descending channel into an impulsive advance, now pausing in an orderly consolidation. Higher swing-lows are intact and the market continues to respect the prior breakout shelf, keeping the bias range-to-up rather than distribution. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) BOTTOM LINE With the FOMC decision this week and the U.S. government still shut, calendars are provisional and headline risk is elevated. Trade the proxies—real yields, USD, liquidity/flows—not the noise. GOLD (XAUUSD) Keep a buy-the-dip stance while the stair-step uptrend and prior breakout shelf remain intact; add only on close-based strength and step back if the base is lost. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Stay constructive while the recovery base holds; work sponsored dips and add only after a clean reclaim of momentum. Position light into the announcement, let Powell’s tone set direction, and let confirmation—not opinion—pull you into size. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold & Bitcoin: Trading the FED Interest Rate Decision A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 27.10.2025 KEY POINTSFed in focus. The market is leaning toward another rate cut at the Oct 28–29 FOMC, with the Fed’s reaction function increasingly framed around a softer labor pulse. Powell’s tone and guidance will dictate whether the market extends risk appetite or leans back into hedges. Geopolitics & tariffs. Fresh U.S.–China tariff rhetoric keeps a hedge premium under risk assets and supports gold on dips; any escalation would amplify haven flows. Data vacuum continues. With the U.S. government still shut down, several high-impact releases remain postponed and calendars are provisional. Markets are steering by proxies such as real yields, DXY, the UST curve, and Fed guidance—rather than hard prints. Expect headline-driven moves and pockets of thin liquidity. With September CPI now published (Oct 24), the market heads into the Oct 28–29 FOMC with at least one fresh datapoint—but most other U.S. releases remain postponed and calendars provisional. In this partial-data regime, traders are leaning on real yields, the USD, and the curve while parsing Fed guidance and tariff headlines. CPI came in a touch softer than feared, which helps the “cuts-are-live” narrative; the bigger swing factor this week is Powell’s tone and any hints on balance-sheet and the pace of easing. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold is rebuilding after last week’s weekly closing price reversal top: spot printed a new record high at $4,381.44 but settled around $4,114, ending a multi-week winning streak. A confirmed follow-through lower would mark a tactical correction, not necessarily a trend change, with $3,846.50 and then $3,720.25 the next lower value zones. The fundamental backdrop still skews supportive medium-term (cuts priced, central-bank demand, geopolitical noise), but the tape is event-led for the next 72 hours. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) WHAT TO WATCH Powell (Tue) and FOMC setup: a cautious/data-impaired tone that preserves cut optionality typically eases real yields and supports dips; a hawkish surprise risks deeper mean-reversion first. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Buy the dips and long only above $4,000. Strategy: Tactical bias: Buy-the-dip while above 3,960; fade spikes only if Powell turns hawkish. Rationale: Policy uncertainty + headline risk + tariff chatter keep the hedge bid alive; without hard data, the market tends to overweight Fed tone and geopolitics—both asymmetrically supportive of gold unless Powell leans firmly restrictive. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) BTC continues to recover after the tariff-shock flush that took price down toward the $105k–$106k area before stabilising; the drop looked like policy shock → deleveraging → mechanical cascade, not a structural break. Since then, structure has been range-to-up with higher-lows rebuilding while flows (spot-ETF demand, funding/basis, on-exchange depth) improve. WHAT TO WATCH Liquidity over data: with official releases delayed, BTC trades flows and broad USD liquidity. A USD squeeze or risk-off wobble can extend pullbacks; calmer Fed tone helps ranges hold. OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY Bitcoin is rebuilding after a tariff-shock flush that followed the White House’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which sparked broad risk-off, a stronger dollar, and an $19B+ wipeout in crypto positioning before prices stabilised. In short: policy shock → deleveraging → mechanical cascade, not a structural break. The rebound since then reflects some cooling of immediate trade fears and dip-buying once forced sellers were cleared. But headline risk stays elevated: Beijing has warned it will retaliate, keeping volatility sensitive to the next tariff headline. Outlook: The chart below shows a clean transition from a multi-week descending channel into an impulsive advance, now pausing in an orderly consolidation. Higher swing-lows are intact and the market continues to respect the prior breakout shelf, keeping the bias range-to-up rather than distribution. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) BOTTOM LINE With the FOMC decision this week and the U.S. government still shut, calendars are provisional and headline risk is elevated. Trade the proxies—real yields, USD, liquidity/flows—not the noise. GOLD (XAUUSD) Keep a buy-the-dip stance while the stair-step uptrend and prior breakout shelf remain intact; add only on close-based strength and step back if the base is lost. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Stay constructive while the recovery base holds; work sponsored dips and add only after a clean reclaim of momentum. Position light into the announcement, let Powell’s tone set direction, and let confirmation—not opinion—pull you into size. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.