{"id":55417,"date":"2026-05-11T15:22:25","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T12:22:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=55417"},"modified":"2026-05-11T16:27:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T13:27:11","slug":"gold-bitcoin-inflation-risk-returns","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-inflation-risk-returns\/","title":{"rendered":"GOLD &amp; BITCOIN : INFLATION RISK RETURNS"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style>\n.fxc-block-bias {\ndisplay: flex;\nmargin-bottom: -16px !important;\n}\n#mobile-only-img {\ndisplay: none ;\n}\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n#desktop-only-img {\ndisplay: none !important;\n}\n#mobile-only-img {\ndisplay: block !important;\n}\n\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li>The US\u2013Iran peace process remains fragile after Trump rejected Iran\u2019s response as \u201cunacceptable\u201d<\/li><li>Oil remains elevated, keeping inflation expectations and rate-cut uncertainty alive<\/li><li>Tuesday\u2019s CPI is the main event, with headline CPI expected at 0.6% MoM \/ 3.7% YoY<\/li><li>PPI follows Wednesday, with producer inflation still important for margin and \u2028pipeline inflation risk<\/li><li>Gold remains capped by yields and USD strength despite geopolitical uncertainty<\/li><li>Bitcoin remains tied to risk sentiment, Nasdaq flows, and liquidity conditions<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Markets remain trapped between two dominant forces: Middle East headline risk and Tuesday\u2019s CPI release.\u2028<br><\/strong><br><strong>The key issue is simple:<\/strong> the market is still not treating the US\u2013Iran conflict as a clean safe-haven catalyst for gold. It is pricing it through the inflation channel: higher oil, higher inflation expectations, elevated Treasury yields, and higher-for-longer Fed expectations.<br><br><strong>Trump\u2019s rejection of Iran\u2019s latest peace proposal<\/strong> pushed Brent higher again, with oil rising after he called the response \u201ctotally unacceptable.\u201d Reuters also reported Brent moved above $105 as supply fears returned.<br><br>This week is therefore about CPI first, PPI second, and retail sales third. If inflation confirms another oil-driven acceleration, markets will likely price tighter financial conditions again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Macro Calendar &#8211; High Impact Events<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\" id=\"desktop-only-img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"403\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Desktop-1-1024x403.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55438\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Desktop-1-1024x403.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Desktop-1-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Desktop-1-768x302.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Desktop-1.png 1498w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\" id=\"mobile-only-img\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"708\" height=\"994\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/mobile-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55443\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/mobile-1.png 708w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/mobile-1-214x300.png 214w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 708px) 100vw, 708px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-wide\"\/>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-block-asset-header\"><div class=\"fxc-block-asset-header__icons\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"fxc-block-asset-header__icon-combined\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/themes\/fxc\/inc\/assets\/icons\/asset-gold-usd.svg\" alt=\"\" width=\"35\" height=\"35\" \/><\/div><div class=\"fxc-block-asset-header__title\">GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Gold remains under pressure because the market is not pricing geopolitics as a traditional safe-haven event. It is pricing the conflict through the inflation channel.<br><br><strong>The chain remains clear:<\/strong> Oil \u2192 Inflation fears \u2192 Higher yields \u2192 Stronger USD \u2192 Gold pressure \u2028\u2028<br><br>Iran\u2019s proposal included demands around sanctions relief, trade routes, guarantees against further aggression, and influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump rejected the response, keeping escalation risk alive and pushing oil higher. \u2028\u2028<br><br>That matters because Brent above $100 keeps the inflation narrative active. The market is not thinking \u201cwar equals gold up.\u201d It is thinking \u201cwar equals oil up, inflation risk up, yields up.\u201d \u2028\u2028<br><br>This is why gold rallies continue to struggle. The dollar is absorbing more geopolitical premium than gold, while the short end of the Treasury curve remains elevated. Until yields roll over or the market shifts into true risk-off, gold remains capped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"524\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-4-1024x524.png\" alt=\"Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0\" class=\"wp-image-55428\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-4-1024x524.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-4-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-4-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-4.png 1498w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Gold Technical analysis<\/strong><\/strong><br><br>Technically, gold remains vulnerable below the current resistance structure. Price is consolidating after a rebound, but the broader structure is still not bullish. The market is sitting around the 4,650\u20134,700 area, with resistance building above.<br><br><strong>Key resistance sits around:<br><\/strong><br><strong>\u2022 4,715<br>\u2022 4,751<br>\u2022 4,783<br>\u2022 4,924<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Key support sits around:<br><\/strong><br><strong>\u2022 4,648<br>\u2022 4,559<br>\u2022 4,497<br>\u2022 4,396<\/strong><br><br>The CPI release is the obvious trigger. A soft CPI plus progress in negotiations can squeeze gold higher toward the upper resistance zone. A hot CPI combined with no deal keeps the downside structure alive and opens the path back toward lower support.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><div class=\"fxc-block-bias\"><div class=\"fxc-block-bias__icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><mask id=\"mask0_bias_neutral\" style=\"mask-type:alpha\" maskUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\"><rect width=\"24\" height=\"24\" fill=\"#D9D9D9\"\/><\/mask><g mask=\"url(#mask0_bias_neutral)\"><path d=\"M16.1603 12.7942L16.8923 15.5263L15.8923 17.2583L11.5622 14.7583L8.56218 19.9545L7.19615 20.3205L6.83013 18.9545L9.83013 13.7583L5.5 11.2583L6.5 9.52628L9.23205 8.79423L12.7321 2.73205L11.866 2.23205L12.866 0.5L21.5263 5.5L20.5263 7.23205L19.6603 6.73205L16.1603 12.7942ZM8.96817 10.9513L14.4241 14.1013L14.0032 12.5304L17.9282 5.73205L14.4641 3.73205L10.5391 10.5304L8.96817 10.9513Z\" fill=\"#3B82F6\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"fxc-block-bias__label\"><b>Bias: Bearish \/ Sell<\/b><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Gold remains bearish as long as oil stays elevated<\/strong>, yields remain high, and the dollar does not weaken. The market is not rewarding geopolitical fear in gold because inflation and rate expectations are dominating the reaction function. \u2028\u2028<br><br>Gold only becomes meaningfully constructive if CPI cools, yields roll over, or the market moves into a genuine risk-off regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-steel-grey-100-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-steel-grey-100-background-color has-background is-style-wide\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-block-asset-header\"><div class=\"fxc-block-asset-header__icons\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"fxc-block-asset-header__icon-combined\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/themes\/fxc\/inc\/assets\/icons\/asset-btc-usd.svg\" alt=\"\" width=\"35\" height=\"35\" \/><\/div><div class=\"fxc-block-asset-header__title\">Bitcoin (BTCusd)<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bitcoin is trading more like a high-beta risk asset than an independent crypto story.<br><\/strong> \u2028<br>The key driver remains liquidity and equity sentiment. If CPI comes in hot and yields push higher, Bitcoin is vulnerable because tighter financial conditions usually pressure speculative assets. \u2028<br><br>The Nasdaq connection is still important. Strong tech sentiment can support Bitcoin temporarily, but if inflation forces yields higher, that support becomes fragile. Bitcoin is not trading as a hedge here. It is trading as a liquidity-sensitive asset. \u2028<br><br>The current structure reflects that. Bitcoin has rallied strongly, but it is now reacting around resistance while yields remain elevated and oil-driven inflation risk is still active.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"527\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-5-1024x527.png\" alt=\"Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0\" class=\"wp-image-55432\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-5-1024x527.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-5-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-5-768x396.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Frame-510-5.png 1124w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<style>\ndiv#bottom-line {\n    border-radius: 10px;\n    border: 1px solid var(--Web-colors-Steel-Grey-100, #D0D5DD);\n    background: var(--Web-colors-Off-White, #F9F9F9);\n    padding: 30px 30px 10px;\n    min-height: auto !important;\n}\n.nodot{\nlist-style:none !important\n}\n\n.fxc-single-content h5 {\n    margin: 28px 0 14px;\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin is testing a key resistance zone after a strong recovery.<br><br>Price is trading around the 80K\u201382K area, close to the upper structure and pivot resistance. The rejection risk is rising unless buyers can force a clean breakout.<br><br><strong>Key resistance sits around:<br><\/strong><br><strong>\u2022 81,600<br>\u2022 82,426<br>\u2022 82,986<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Key support sits around:<br><\/strong><br><strong>\u2022 80,810<br>\u2022 80,296<br>\u2022 79,465<br>\u2022 77,500\u201376,400 extension<br><\/strong><br>A break above 83K would improve the structure. Failure below 80K would confirm rejection and open downside toward deeper support.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\"><div class=\"fxc-block-bias\"><div class=\"fxc-block-bias__icon\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><mask id=\"mask0_bias_neutral\" style=\"mask-type:alpha\" maskUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\"><rect width=\"24\" height=\"24\" fill=\"#D9D9D9\"\/><\/mask><g mask=\"url(#mask0_bias_neutral)\"><path d=\"M16.1603 12.7942L16.8923 15.5263L15.8923 17.2583L11.5622 14.7583L8.56218 19.9545L7.19615 20.3205L6.83013 18.9545L9.83013 13.7583L5.5 11.2583L6.5 9.52628L9.23205 8.79423L12.7321 2.73205L11.866 2.23205L12.866 0.5L21.5263 5.5L20.5263 7.23205L19.6603 6.73205L16.1603 12.7942ZM8.96817 10.9513L14.4241 14.1013L14.0032 12.5304L17.9282 5.73205L14.4641 3.73205L10.5391 10.5304L8.96817 10.9513Z\" fill=\"#3B82F6\"\/><\/g><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"fxc-block-bias__label\"><b>Bias: Bearish (Sell Rallies)<\/b><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin remains vulnerable below the 82K\u201383K resistance zone. Upside requires risk-on confirmation, softer yields, and ideally a weaker dollar. \u2028\u2028<br><br>If CPI is hot, yields rise, and Nasdaq weakens, Bitcoin likely follows lower.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-block-bottom-line\"><div class=\"fxc-block-bottom-line__title\">Bottom Line \u2014 Gold &amp; Bitcoin<\/div><div class=\"fxc-block-bottom-line__body\">\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Markets are not trading the Middle East conflict emotionally. They are trading<br>its inflation consequences. \u2028<br><br>As long as oil remains elevated and yields stay high, gold faces structural headwinds despite geopolitical uncertainty. Tuesday\u2019s CPI will decide whether that pressure continues or whether yields finally give gold some relief.\u2028\u2028<br><br>Bitcoin remains tied to liquidity and equity sentiment. If CPI supports higher-for-longer pricing, BTC becomes vulnerable to a Nasdaq-led pullback. If CPI cools, both risk assets and gold can stabilize. \u2028\u2028<br><br>The key chain remains: \u2028<br><br>Oil \u2192 Inflation \u2192 Yields \u2192 USD \u2192 Market direction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.wp-block-button {\npadding: 0px !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-dark-blue-300-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-small-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;border: 1px solid #55657B;\nbackground: #131B28;\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-steel-grey-100-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-steel-grey-100-background-color has-background is-style-wide\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-default\"\/>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\nstrong {\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n}\n.fxc-takeaways-list:nth-of-type(2) li:first-child {\n    padding-left: 0px !important;\n    list-style: none;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold is not trading geopolitical risk as a bullish catalyst \u2014 it is trading it through the inflation channel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-55417","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GOLD &amp; BITCOIN : INFLATION RISK RETURNS | 4XC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-inflation-risk-returns\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-inflation-risk-returns\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-inflation-risk-returns\\\/\",\"name\":\"GOLD &amp; 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