{"id":55321,"date":"2026-03-31T10:31:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T07:31:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=55321"},"modified":"2026-03-31T10:47:31","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T07:47:31","slug":"gold-bitcoin-war-and-jobs","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-war-and-jobs\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold &amp; Bitcoin : War and Jobs"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li>The US-Iran war is driving a global energy shock, with oil above $115, sharply lifting inflation expectations.<\/li><li>Markets are repricing toward a higher-for-longer rate regime, supporting USD and yields.<\/li><li>Gold is failing to act as a classic safe haven, as yields and dollar strength dominate flows.<\/li><li>This week&#8217;s data cluster $(ADP\\rightarrow ISM\\rightarrow NFP)$ is the key directional catalyst.<\/li><li>Bitcoin is facing beta unwinding, as traders reduce risk exposure amid tightening liquidity.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">Gold is attempting to stabilize after a headline-driven selloff, but the market continues to price the Middle East conflict primarily through the inflation and yields channel rather than a clean safe-haven bid. The US-Iran escalation, including explicit threats around oil infrastructure and Kharg Island, has pushed oil sharply higher and reinforced a higher-for-longer rate environment.<br><br>As a result, gold remains under pressure despite geopolitical risk, while Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a high-beta liquidity asset, vulnerable to further unwinds.<br><br>With a heavy macro calendar this week\u2014culminating in NFP on Friday\u2014markets are entering a high-volatility, data-dependent regime where inflation expectations and rate repricing will dominate direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:16px;\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/XAUUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">The dominant driver for gold prices is no longer geopolitics alone\u2014it is the second-order effect of the war: inflation.<br><br>The escalation between the US and Iran, including rhetoric around seizing oil infrastructure and troop deployments, has pushed crude into a vertical move, with Brent trading above $116. This has fundamentally shifted market pricing toward:\u2028<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul style=\"font-size:14px\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Higher inflation expectations<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fewer Fed cuts (or none)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sustained upward pressure on real yields<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">That shift is critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"524\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chart-1-1024x524.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chart-1-1024x524.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chart-1-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chart-1-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/chart-1.png 1124w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>Gold Technical analysis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Price remains inside a bearish channel structure<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lower highs \/ lower lows still intact<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Key resistance cluster: 4,500 \u2013 4,620<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Failure to reclaim = continuation risk<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p><strong>Downside\u2028<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>4,320 \u2192 4,100 \u2192 deeper extension if yields rise further<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BIAS: BEARISH \u2014 INFLATION SHOCK OUTWEIGHS SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">Gold remains under pressure as rising inflation expectations push yields higher and delay rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>In short, the market is currently trading inflation risk rather than geopolitical fear, which historically shifts the balance against gold.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/BTCUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN (BTCUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">Bitcoin is currently trading as a high-beta liquidity instrument, not a safe haven, and the ongoing US-Iran conflict is accelerating that dynamic rather than reversing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin is currently trading as a high-beta liquidity instrument, not a safe haven, and the ongoing US-Iran conflict is accelerating that dynamic rather than reversing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key driver is not the war itself, but how the market is pricing its consequences. The surge in oil prices is feeding directly into inflation expectations, which in turn is pushing Treasury yields and the US dollar higher. That combination tightens global financial conditions\u2014historically one of the most negative backdrops for crypto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Structure forming a rising wedge \/ corrective channel<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rejection near pivot resistance cluster (~68k-70k zone)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lower high formation intact<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Key levels:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Breakdown below 65k opens acceleration<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Target extension: $60k\\rightarrow55k\\rightarrow50k$ liquidity zone<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Structure suggests continuation lower unless breakout occurs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>This process \u2014 commonly referred to as beta unwinding<\/strong> \u2014 occurs when investors cut risk positions in order to raise liquidity and protect capital during periods of uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"622\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/charts-2-1024x622.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55326\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/charts-2-1024x622.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/charts-2-300x182.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/charts-2-768x467.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/charts-2.png 1124w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\ndiv#bottom-line {\n    border-radius: 10px;\n    border: 1px solid var(--Web-colors-Steel-Grey-100, #D0D5DD);\n    background: var(--Web-colors-Off-White, #F9F9F9);\n    padding: 30px 30px 10px;\n    min-height: auto !important;\n}\n.nodot{\nlist-style:none !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BIAS: BEARISH &#8211; BETA UNWINDING DOMINATES<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been trading inside a rising consolidation structure following the February liquidation. This is a clear bear flag pattern. Price is currently approaching a key resistance cluster near the $68K region, which aligns with pivot resistance levels and the upper boundary of the recovery structure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>BOTTOM LINE \u2014 GOLD &amp; BITCOIN<\/h3><div class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\" style=\"\n    padding-left: 0;\n\"><p style=\"margin: 0;\">\n<div style=\"width: 100%\"><span style=\"color: var(--Web-colors-Body-text-Standard, #475467); font-size: 14px; font-family: Montserrat; font-weight: 700; line-height: 19.60px; letter-spacing: 0.14px; word-wrap: break-word\">Markets are no longer trading the war itself\u2014they are trading its macro consequences. The US-Iran escalation has triggered a powerful energy-driven inflation shock, pushing oil sharply higher and forcing a repricing toward a higher-for-longer rate environment. That is lifting Treasury yields, strengthening the US dollar, and tightening global liquidity.\u2028\u2028<br\/><br\/>\n\nThis creates a structurally difficult backdrop for both assets\u2014but for different reasons:\u2028\u2028<br\/><br\/><\/span>\n\n\n<span style=\"color: var(--Web-colors-Body-text-Standard, #475467); font-size: 14px; font-family: Montserrat; font-weight: 700; line-height: 19.60px; letter-spacing: 0.14px; word-wrap: break-word\">\n<ul>\n<li><b>\nGold is being pressured because rising yields and a stronger dollar are outweighing the safe-haven bid. Despite geopolitical risk, it is trading as a rate-sensitive asset, and until yields roll over, rallies are likely to be sold.<\/b><br\/>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>\nBitcoin is facing beta unwinding, as traders reduce exposure to high-risk assets in a tightening liquidity environment. It is behaving like a leveraged macro trade, not a defensive asset, making it more vulnerable to downside continuation.<\/b><\/span>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>THE KEY TAKEAWAY<\/h3><div class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\" style=\"\n    padding-left: 0;\n\"><p style=\"margin: 0;\">\n<div style=\"width: 100%\"><span style=\"color: var(--Web-colors-Body-text-Standard, #475467); font-size: 14px; font-family: Montserrat; font-weight: 700; line-height: 19.60px; letter-spacing: 0.14px; word-wrap: break-word\">War Oil shock \u2192 Inflation \u2192 Higher yields \u2192 Tighter liquidity\u2028\u2028\u2028<br\/><br\/>\n\nUntil that chain breaks, the environment remains:\u2028\u2028<br\/><br\/><\/span>\n\n\n<span style=\"color: var(--Web-colors-Body-text-Standard, #475467); font-size: 14px; font-family: Montserrat; font-weight: 700; line-height: 19.60px; letter-spacing: 0.14px; word-wrap: break-word\">\n<ul>\n<li><b>\nBearish for gold (yield pressure)<\/b><br\/>\n<\/li>\n<li><b>\nBearish for Bitcoin (liquidity unwind)<\/b><\/span>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<br\/>\nThis is not a trend-following market\u2014it is a macro-driven, sell-the-rally environment.\n<\/div><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:6px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.wp-block-button {\npadding: 0px !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-dark-blue-300-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-small-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;border: 1px solid #55657B;\nbackground: #131B28;\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\nstrong {\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n}\n.fxc-takeaways-list:nth-of-type(2) li:first-child {\n    padding-left: 0px !important;\n    list-style: none;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global markets are digesting a sharp de-risking episode that began in US tech equities and spilled into crypto and precious metals. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-55321","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold &amp; Bitcoin : War and Jobs | 4XC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-war-and-jobs\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-war-and-jobs\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-war-and-jobs\\\/\",\"name\":\"Gold &amp; 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