{"id":55219,"date":"2026-02-24T11:20:07","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T08:20:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev4xc.wpenginepowered.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=55219"},"modified":"2026-02-24T11:48:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T08:48:45","slug":"gold-bitcoin-trade-war-and-iran-tensions","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-trade-war-and-iran-tensions\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold &amp; Bitcoin: Trade War and Iran Tensions"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li>Supreme Court ruling resets the US tariff regime, increasing policy uncertainty<\/li><li>New flat-rate tariff framework introduces short-term clarity, long-term friction<\/li><li>Rising Iran tensions reintroduce geopolitical risk premium<\/li><li>Friday&#8217;s inflation data is the decisive macro catalyst<\/li><li>Gold remains structurally supported; Bitcoin remains structurally fragile<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">This week is dominated by a <strong>regime shift in US trade policy<\/strong> after the Supreme Court struck down Trump&#8217;s IEEPA-based <strong>&#8220;reciprocal tariffs&#8221;<\/strong>, forcing the administration into a new, time-limited tariff framework. The market now has clarity that tariffs remain, but also uncertainty about the rules-of-the-road for the next 150 days and beyond. That uncertainty is already spilling into Europe, with the EU signalling it may freeze ratification work on the US-EU trade deal until Washington clarifies policy.<br><br>At the same time, <strong>Iran risk<\/strong> is rising materially, with evidence of a <strong>major US force build-up<\/strong> in the region and reports of Iran moving to rebuild air defences via a large-scale <strong>Russian missile deal<\/strong>, both of which increase tail-risk pricing in energy and safe havens.<br><br><strong>Friday is the key macro checkpoint: PPI + Core PPI<\/strong> are the rate catalyst this week (not &#8220;noise&#8221;), and could reset real yields, USD, and the equity leadership bid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:16px;\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/XAUUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">The Supreme Court ruling removed the legal basis for the previous tariff structure, but it did not remove trade friction. Instead, the administration pivoted to a new flat-rate tariff regime, shifting the mechanism rather than the direction of policy.<br><br>Markets now face a different kind of uncertainty: not whether tariffs exist, but how durable and scalable the new framework becomes. This keeps inflation expectations sensitive and reinforces gold&#8217;s medium-term support through policy instability.<br><br>At the same time, Iran tensions have reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium. Military positioning and diplomatic deadlines increase tail-risk pricing across energy and safe-haven assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Gold is therefore trading in a regime where it is both:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul style=\"font-size:14px\" class=\"wp-block-list list-headline\">\n<li>A hedge against policy instability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A macro asset sensitive to real yield repricing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">The interaction between tariffs, inflation data, and geopolitical risk will define direction.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\n   .list-headline {\n    margin-top: -15px !important;\n    margin-left: 10px !important;\n   }\n   .list-left {\n    margin-left: 10px !important;\n   }\n.fxc-single-content ul li, .fxc-single-content ol li {\n    margin-bottom: 6px !important;\n    padding-left: 4px;\n}\n\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/gold-24-02-2026-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55220\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/gold-24-02-2026-1024x475.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/gold-24-02-2026-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/gold-24-02-2026-768x356.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/gold-24-02-2026.png 1124w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BIAS: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH, DATA AND GEOPOLITICAL TENSION DEPENDENT<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list list-left\">\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Bullish if inflation moderates and real yields soften while geopolitical tensions escalate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Neutral if data is mixed and volatility expands<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Bearish if inflation forces higher-rate repricing<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:10px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">This is not a passive hold environment, it is a geopolitical and <strong>data-driven regime<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/BTCUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN (BTCUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Bitcoin remains structurally weaker than gold and continues to trade as a high-beta risk asset rather than a geopolitical hedge.<br><br>The tariff reset increases macro uncertainty but does not automatically generate a direct structural bid for crypto. Instead, Bitcoin&#8217;s trajectory remains closely tied to liquidity conditions and US equity sentiment.<br><br>Iran tensions may increase volatility broadly, but Bitcoin&#8217;s response will depend more on real yield direction and risk appetite than on geopolitical headlines alone.<br><br>Until liquidity conditions improve materially, upside remains conditional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"475\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/btc-24-02-2026-1024x475.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55224\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/btc-24-02-2026-1024x475.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/btc-24-02-2026-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/btc-24-02-2026-768x356.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/btc-24-02-2026.png 1124w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<style>\ndiv#bottom-line {\n    border-radius: 10px;\n    border: 1px solid var(--Web-colors-Steel-Grey-100, #D0D5DD);\n    background: var(--Web-colors-Off-White, #F9F9F9);\n    padding: 30px 30px 10px;\n    min-height: auto !important;\n}\n.nodot{\nlist-style:none !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong> BIAS: NEUTRAL-TO-BEARISH WHILE BELOW RECLAIMED STRUCTURE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Bullish only if higher highs are established<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Neutral if range stabilization develops<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Bearish if equity weakness accelerates<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Volatility is expected to remain elevated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>BOTTOM LINE \u2014 GOLD &amp; BITCOIN<\/h3><div class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\" style=\"\n    padding-left: 0;\n\"><p style=\"\n    margin: 0;\n\">The Supreme Court ruling removes the legal structure of the previous tariff regime, but it does not remove trade friction. It replaces one form of policy uncertainty with another. Markets now move from &#8220;are tariffs legal?&#8221; to &#8220;how far does this new regime go?&#8221; That shift keeps inflation expectations unstable and preserves macro volatility.<br><br>\n\nAt the same time, Iran tensions reintroduce a genuine geopolitical risk premium. Military positioning and compressed diplomatic timelines mean energy markets, volatility, and safe-haven flows cannot be ignored. <br><br>\n\n<b>This is not background noise &#8211; it is conditional risk.<\/b><br><br>\n\nThe decisive variable this week remains Friday&#8217;s PPI inflation data. If inflation cools, real yields soften and gold has room to extend higher. If inflation surprises to the upside, rate repricing resumes and both gold and risk assets face renewed pressure.<br><br>\n\nGold remains structurally supported, but confirmation is required. Bitcoin remains structurally fragile until proven otherwise.<br><br>\n\nThis is not a narrative-driven week. It is a structure-and-data-driven week. <br><br>\n\n<b>Let price confirm.<\/b><\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:6px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.wp-block-button {\npadding: 0px !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-dark-blue-300-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-small-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;border: 1px solid #55657B;\nbackground: #131B28;\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\nstrong {\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n}\n.fxc-takeaways-list:nth-of-type(2) li:first-child {\n    padding-left: 0px !important;\n    list-style: none;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global markets are digesting a sharp de-risking episode that began in US tech equities and spilled into crypto and precious metals. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-55219","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold &amp; Bitcoin: Trade War and Iran Tensions | 4XC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-trade-war-and-iran-tensions\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-trade-war-and-iran-tensions\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-trade-war-and-iran-tensions\\\/\",\"name\":\"Gold &amp; 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