{"id":55106,"date":"2026-01-19T12:27:46","date_gmt":"2026-01-19T09:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev4xc.wpenginepowered.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=55106"},"modified":"2026-01-19T13:59:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T10:59:26","slug":"gold-bitcoin-return-of-the-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-return-of-the-trade-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold &amp; Bitcoin: Return of the Trade WAR"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li>Gold is consolidating just below all-time highs as markets digest a renewed escalation in global trade tensions, not merely Fed expectations. The current range reflects positioning, not distribution.<\/li><li>The re-emergence of a tariff war narrative is reviving structural inflation risk and reinforcing gold\u2019s role as a geopolitical hedge rather than a pure rate-cut trade.<\/li><li>Greenland and broader Arctic positioning highlight strategic competition over resources, supply chains, and security, adding a long-duration geopolitical premium to gold.<\/li><li>Bitcoin remains sensitive to liquidity conditions and risk sentiment; unlike gold, it does not directly benefit from geopolitical fragmentation and remains technically vulnerable below key resistance.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Markets are entering the week with geopolitics back in control of the narrative. While the Fed remains relevant at the margin, recent developments suggest that gold is increasingly being priced as protection against policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation, and strategic rivalry, rather than just a response to near-term rate expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-headline-block\" style=\"background-color: #0a1c38; color: #ffffff;\"><h2>XAUUSD and Bitcoin \u2014 Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:16px;\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/XAUUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"margin: 0; margin-bottom:32px;color: var(--Web-colors-Body-text-Black, #000D22);\n\"><b>Geopolitics Re-Priced, Trend Structure Intact<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Gold\u2019s recent pause below record highs should be viewed through a geopolitical lens, not as a loss of momentum. Price action is consolidating after an aggressive impulse driven by tariff escalation fears and renewed great-power competition, rather than overheating technicals.<br><br>The tariff war narrative matters because it re-introduces structural inflation risk at a time when central banks are attempting to engineer a soft landing. Tariffs are, by nature, inflationary and politically sticky. This constrains how aggressively policymakers can ease \u2014 a dynamic that historically supports gold even without immediate rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"563\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart1-19-01-1024x563.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55107\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart1-19-01-1024x563.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart1-19-01-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart1-19-01-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart1-19-01.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:22px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">The Greenland angle adds a second layer. Control over Arctic routes, rare earth access, and strategic positioning underscores a broader shift toward resource security and bloc-based economics. For reserve managers and long-term allocators, this strengthens the case for gold as neutral collateral in a<br>fragmenting global system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH \u2014 BUY PULLBACKS SEEM LOGICAL, RESPECT VOLATILITY<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Near-term consolidation is healthy after the recent run.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Deeper re-tracements would likely be driven by positioning, not a breakdown in the thesis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">As long as trade tensions and strategic competition persist, gold retains structural support beyond Fed timing.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/BTCUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN (BTCUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Bitcoin remains a liquidity-sensitive asset, not a geopolitical hedge. While gold benefits from trade fragmentation and strategic uncertainty, bitcoin\u2019s performance depends far more on financial conditions, risk appetite, and capital flows.<br><br>Technically, BTC is compressing near a critical pivot, with price action reflecting hesitation rather than accumulation. Unlike gold, it has not attracted defensive or reserve-style flows in response to recent geopolitical headlines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px;\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BTC OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL \u2192 BEARISH BIAS WHILE BELOW KEY RESISTANCE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Given the bear flag structure, pivot congestion, and the macro event ahead:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Upside scenarios require a clear improvement in liquidity expectations and risk sentiment.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">In a world of tariffs, fragmented trade, and rising political risk, bitcoin does not automatically attract safe-haven demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Downside risks remain asymmetric if broader markets re-price growth and liquidity assumptions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Bitcoin may still perform in a risk-on environment, but it is not the beneficiary of the current macro regime in the same way gold is.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"564\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart2-19-01-1024x564.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55111\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart2-19-01-1024x564.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart2-19-01-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart2-19-01-768x423.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/chart2-19-01.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2026)\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<style>\ndiv#bottom-line {\n    border-radius: 10px;\n    border: 1px solid var(--Web-colors-Steel-Grey-100, #D0D5DD);\n    background: var(--Web-colors-Off-White, #F9F9F9);\n    padding: 30px 30px 10px;\n    min-height: auto !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light\" id=\"bottom-line\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-steel-grey-50-background-color has-background-dim-100 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:18px\">BOTTOM LINE<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">This is no longer just a Fed-driven market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Gold is being repriced as protection against trade war escalation, strategic competition, and long-duration geopolitical risk. Consolidation below highs is a pause, not a failure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"font-size:14px\">Bitcoin remains tied to liquidity and sentiment, leaving it vulnerable in an environment defined by tariffs, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical fragmentation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Until markets receive clarity on how far trade tensions and strategic competition will go, gold remains structurally favored, while bitcoin requires confirmation and improved financial conditions.<br><br>Positioning should remain selective, patient, and thesis-driven \u2014 the macro regime has shifted, and gold is responding accordingly.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:36px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.wp-block-button {\npadding: 0px !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-dark-blue-300-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-small-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;border: 1px solid #55657B;\nbackground: #131B28;\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\nstrong {\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n}\n.fxc-takeaways-list:nth-of-type(2) li:first-child {\n    padding-left: 0px !important;\n    list-style: none;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are entering the week with geopolitics back in control of the narrative.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-55106","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.9 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold &amp; Bitcoin: Return of the Trade WAR | 4XC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-return-of-the-trade-war\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-return-of-the-trade-war\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-return-of-the-trade-war\\\/\",\"name\":\"Gold &amp; 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