
{"id":55033,"date":"2025-12-09T15:53:44","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T12:53:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev4xc.wpenginepowered.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=55033"},"modified":"2025-12-09T17:17:41","modified_gmt":"2025-12-09T14:17:41","slug":"gold-bitcoin-fomc-interestrate-decision","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-fomc-interestrate-decision\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold &amp; Bitcoin : FOMC InterestRate Decision"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li>Gold trades near <strong>$4,217\u2013$4,220<\/strong>, trapped in a tightening range as traders wait for Wednesday\u2019s FOMC rate decision, projections, and Powell\u2019s press conference <strong>(19:00\u201319:30 GMT)<\/strong>.\u2028<\/li><li>Futures continue to imply a high probability of a <strong>25 bp cut<\/strong>, but recent labour strength and firm consumer spending raise the risk of a hawkish tone from Powell.\u2028<\/li><li><strong>Global sentiment is mixed:<\/strong> US indices weaker today, VIX higher, dollar stabilising. This tempers gold\u2019s upside until the Fed clarifies the rate path.\u2028<\/li><li>A decisive breakout is not likely before Wednesday, but volatility is building beneath the surface. Just like a rubber when extended: it hurts if it hits you.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Markets enter the week with a <strong>singular focus: Wednesday\u2019s FOMC decision<\/strong>, where traders widely expect another 25 bps rate cut. Futures are already pricing high conviction for easing, but\u2014as always\u2014the bigger risk lies in Powell\u2019s tone, the Economic Projections, and any shift in the Fed\u2019s inflation or labor narrative. Seasonality remains supportive\u2014December historically carries a bullish drift\u2014but Fed communication will decide whether this year follows the pattern or breaks it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-headline-block\" style=\"background-color: #0a1c38; color: #ffffff;\"><h2>XAUUSD and Bitcoin \u2014 Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"margin-bottom:16px;\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/XAUUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p style=\"margin: 0; margin-bottom:32px;color: var(--Web-colors-Body-text-Black, #000D22);\n\"><b>Event-Led, But Medium-Term Still Bullish<\/b><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Gold is stabilizing after the prior week\u2019s reversal top, where price printed a new all-time high at <strong>$4,381<\/strong> before correcting toward the <strong>$4,110\u2013$4,000<\/strong> region. The pullback so far resembles tactical mean-reversion, not a structural trend change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"447\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-1.1--1024x447.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55048\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-1.1--1024x447.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-1.1--300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-1.1--768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-1.1-.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025)&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:22px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">The primary driver is the &#8220;shutdown fallout&#8221;. After ending on <strong>November 12<\/strong>, the shutdown has left markets data-dependent but data-blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is still assessing when it can release delayed employment reports.<br><br>The last NFP report (for August) was a very weak <strong>+22K<\/strong>, far missing forecasts, and was accompanied by a massive <strong>911K<\/strong> downward revision for the 12 months through March 2025, suggesting the labor market was far weaker than believed. The CME FedWatch tool implies a <strong>60.2%<\/strong> chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH \u2014 BUY THE DIPS; LONG ONLY ABOVE $4,000.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">A hawkish Powell could force a deeper retest of the <strong>$3,960<\/strong> floor, but unless the Fed signals a decisively restrictive path, gold retains asymmetric upside.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/BTCUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN (BTCUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Bitcoin enters the week trading inside a broad rising-wedge structure, compressing between higher lows but failing to break the upper trendline. Price is currently pinned near the 90,000 pivot zone, which\u2014based on the chart\u2014acts as the central inflection level for the next leg.<br>The market is effectively waiting for Wednesday\u2019s FOMC to decide direction. Until then, flows remain shallow and positioning reluctant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px;\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>UPDATED BTC OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL \u2192 BEARISH BIAS WHILE BELOW 93,500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Given the wedge structure, pivot congestion, and the macro event ahead:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">The current price action is viewed technically as a significant correction, possibly a Wave C under Elliott Wave theory. The bias has shifted short-term to the downside, but key supports are being tested:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenario 1 \u2013 Powell Dovish (Bullish)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTC reclaims R1 (93,425) \u2192 targets 95,800 quickly.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Break above wedge resistance opens 99\u2013101k.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Probability: moderate, but needs clean liquidity injection.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Scenario 2 \u2013 Powell Hawkish \/ \u201cHigh Bar for Cuts\u201d (Bearish)<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>BTC loses 89k \u2192 immediate drop to 87,400, then 80\u201381k.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extensive liquidity pockets below may accelerate to 75k.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Probability: elevated, given Fed concern about easing too aggressively.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"654\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-2--1024x654.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-55040\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-2--1024x654.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-2--300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-2--768x490.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/chart-2-.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025)&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Gold remains in a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above the $3,960\u20134,000 structural base. The medium-term narrative still favors upside\u2014real yields remain compressed, Fed easing is priced in, central-bank demand is steady, and geopolitical risk supports a hedge premium bottom line.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:18px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">BTC is coiling inside a rising wedge, sitting directly on the 90k pivot. With massive two-way risk into the FOMC, this is a binary setup:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">\u27a1\ufe0f Above 93.5k \u2192 retest 96k and possibly 100k<br><br>\u27a1\ufe0f Below 89k \u2192 sharp unwinding risk into 80k, then 75k<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Until the Fed delivers clarity, <strong>positioning light is essential.\u2028<\/strong><br>Gold remains in a buy-the-dip regime as long as price holds above the $3,960\u20134,000 structural base. The medium-term narrative still favors upside\u2014real yields remain compressed, Fed easing is priced in, central-bank demand is steady, and geopolitical risk supports a hedge premium.<br><br>Bitcoin is coiling at the 90k pivot, trapped inside a rising wedge where volatility is building ahead of the FOMC. The chart shows clean asymmetric risk :Strength only resumes above 93.5k, while a break below 89k exposes a fast air-pocket into 87k \u2192 81k, with extension risk toward 75k if momentum accelerates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\ndiv#bottom-line {\n    border-radius: 10px;\n    border: 1px solid var(--Web-colors-Steel-Grey-100, #D0D5DD);\n    background: var(--Web-colors-Off-White, #F9F9F9);\n    padding: 30px 30px 10px;\n    min-height: auto !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light\" id=\"bottom-line\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-steel-grey-50-background-color has-background-dim-100 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:18px\">BOTTOM LINE \u2013 GOLD &amp; BITCOIN<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold stays cautiously bullish above $3,960, with a dovish FOMC likely to support another push toward $4,300+, while a hawkish tone risks a deeper pullback.<br><br>Bitcoin sits in a bearish-leaning wedge, needing a break above 93.5k to regain<br>momentum; below 89k, downside opens quickly toward 87k \u2192 81k.<br><br>Until the Fed speaks, keep positioning light and confirmation-driven\u2014the FOMC<br>will dictate the next major move for both markets.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:36px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.wp-block-button {\npadding: 0px !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-dark-blue-300-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-small-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;border: 1px solid #55657B;\nbackground: #131B28;\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\nstrong {\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n}\n.fxc-takeaways-list:nth-of-type(2) li:first-child {\n    padding-left: 0px !important;\n    list-style: none;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets enter the week with a singular focus: Wednesday\u2019s FOMC decision, where traders widely expect another 25 bps rate cut<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-55033","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold &amp; Bitcoin : FOMC InterestRate Decision | 4XC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-fomc-interestrate-decision\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-fomc-interestrate-decision\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-fomc-interestrate-decision\\\/\",\"name\":\"Gold &amp; 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