{"id":54866,"date":"2025-11-18T12:35:58","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T09:35:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev4xc.wpenginepowered.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=54866"},"modified":"2025-11-18T13:36:03","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T10:36:03","slug":"gold-bitcoin-post-shutdown-rush","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-post-shutdown-rush\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold &amp; Bitcoin : Post Shutdown Rush\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li><strong>Macro Context:<\/strong> The &#8220;<strong>longest US government shutdown in history<\/strong>&#8221; ended last week. Markets now face high uncertainty and event risk, awaiting delayed key data (e.g., NFP).<\/li><li><strong>Fed Policy:<\/strong> FedWatch data shows a <strong>60.2%<\/strong> probability of a rate cut at the <strong>December 10 FOMC<\/strong> meeting, though recent Fed commentary has been cautious.<\/li><li><strong>Risk Sentiment:<\/strong> Fragile. US equities had their worst day in a month last week amid a tech sell-off and post-shutdown uncertainty.<\/li><li><strong>Data Dump:<\/strong> The delayed September Jobs Report (NFP) will be released on Thursday.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">This week is expected to be highly volatile and event-led, dominated by the <strong>fallout<\/strong> from the U.S. government shutdown, which ended on November 12. While the immediate political crisis is over, the resulting economic uncertainty \u2014specifically the <strong>data vacuum<\/strong> from the missed month of collection\u2014remains the key macro risk for global financial markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">The central theme for traders is the data vacuum finally giving way to a flood of postponed, high-impact U.S. economic reports. Until these hard prints are released, markets are steering by proxies\u2014such as real yields, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and Federal Reserve guidance\u2014meaning we should expect headline-driven moves and pockets of thin liquidity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-headline-block\" style=\"background-color: #0a1c38; color: #ffffff;\"><h2>XAUUSD and Bitcoin \u2014 Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; margin-bottom:32px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/XAUUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Gold&#8217;s<\/strong> recent breakout has stalled, with price failing at key resistance <strong>($4,245-$4,252)<\/strong> before correcting sharply to test the <strong>$4,100<\/strong> support level. This move reflects a broader &#8220;risk-off&#8221; turn in markets and, more importantly, a period of high macro uncertainty.<br><br>The record-long US government shutdown just ended, and investors now have low visibility, awaiting a backlog of <strong>crucial economic data (NFP)<\/strong>. While the market is pricing a <strong>60.2%<\/strong> chance of a December Fed cut, this conviction is being tested by firm real yields, with 10Y TIPS at <strong>+1.83%<\/strong>. The long-term structural tailwind from aggressive central bank buying remains, but it is currently battling slowing ETF flows and <strong>fragile consumer confidence<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"447\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/xauusd-1811-1024x447.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54867\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/xauusd-1811-1024x447.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/xauusd-1811-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/xauusd-1811-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/xauusd-1811.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:22px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">The primary driver is the &#8220;shutdown fallout&#8221;. After ending on November 12, the shutdown has left markets data-dependent but data-blind. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is still assessing when it can release delayed employment reports.<br><br>The last NFP report (for August) was a very weak <strong>+22K<\/strong>, far missing forecasts, and was accompanied by a massive <strong>911K<\/strong> downward revision for the 12 months through March 2025, suggesting the labor market was far weaker than believed. The CME FedWatch tool implies a <strong>60.2%<\/strong> chance of a rate cut at the December 10 meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>OUTLOOK:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">The base case is Neutral\/Bearish in the immediate term, with price action captive to the <strong>$4100<\/strong> support. A data-driven break of this level would confirm a secondary peak is forming and hope that price can re-claim <strong>$4,260<\/strong> again.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 24px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 8px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/BTCUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN (BTCUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">The outlook for Bitcoin remains highly volatile and is dominated by external macro factors, specifically the ongoing reassessment of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate path and the broader risk-off sentiment in the equity markets. Bitcoin has undergone a significant correction, falling by approximately 25% from its early October peak of nearly <strong>$126,000<\/strong>. This sell-off has pushed the price below the psychological and technical <strong>$100,000<\/strong> threshold, satisfying the technical definition of a <strong>bear market<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:4px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 16px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px;\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>OUTLOOK:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Sell short term due to loss of investor confidence in the AI story. Price could potentially drop to $80,000. Long term fundamentals are still strong and price could reclaim $125,000 again.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">The current price action is viewed technically as a significant correction, possibly a Wave C under Elliott Wave theory. The bias has shifted short-term to the downside, but key supports are being tested:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:12px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"654\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/btc-18-11-1024x654.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54871\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/btc-18-11-1024x654.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/btc-18-11-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/btc-18-11-768x490.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/btc-18-11.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:46px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\ndiv#bottom-line {\n    border-radius: 10px;\n    border: 1px solid var(--Web-colors-Steel-Grey-100, #D0D5DD);\n    background: var(--Web-colors-Off-White, #F9F9F9);\n    padding: 30px 30px 10px;\n    min-height: auto !important;\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cover is-light\" id=\"bottom-line\"><span aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-cover__background has-steel-grey-50-background-color has-background-dim-100 has-background-dim\"><\/span><div class=\"wp-block-cover__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-cover-is-layout-constrained\">\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:18px\">BOTTOM LINE<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The current market structure demands focused, light positioning across both asset classes. While <strong>Gold (XAUUSD)<\/strong> maintains a cautiously bullish bias due to supportive long-term geopolitical and central-bank demand, its immediate direction is subject to the tone set by the FOMC Minutes, requiring investors to maintain a <strong>buy-the-dip<\/strong> stance above the $4,000 threshold. Meanwhile, <strong>Bitcoin (BTC)<\/strong> has entered a bear market hence <strong>short term the sell off<\/strong> could continue.<br><br>However, long term retains its <strong>Strong Buy<\/strong> outlook, viewing the recent sharp sell-off as a mechanical deleveraging cascade rather than a structural break; the strategy remains to stay constructive and work sponsored dips while the recovery base holds. Ultimately, with hard economic data impaired, successful navigation requires trading the proxies\u2014real yields, USD, and broad liquidity\u2014 and allowing <strong>confirmation, not opinion, to dictate risk size<\/strong> into this volatile, event-driven week.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:36px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<style>\n.wp-block-button {\npadding: 0px !important\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link has-white-color has-dark-blue-300-background-color has-text-color has-background has-link-color has-small-font-size has-custom-font-size wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px;border: 1px solid #55657B;\nbackground: #131B28;\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:52px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\nstrong {\n    font-weight: bold !important;\n}\n.fxc-takeaways-list:nth-of-type(2) li:first-child {\n    padding-left: 0px !important;\n    list-style: none;\n}\n\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This material is provided for marketing purposes and follows the general principles applicable to marketing communications under MiFID II, however, 4XC is not regulated under MiFID II and is not subject to its requirements. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. This newsletter is intended exclusively for our registered clients and contains market analysis that does not constitute personalized investment advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week is expected to be highly volatile and event-led, dominated by the fallout from the U.S. government shutdown, which ended on November 12. While the immediate political crisis is over, the resulting economic uncertainty \u2014specifically the data vacuum from the missed month of collection\u2014remains the key macro risk for global financial markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-54866","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold &amp; Bitcoin : Post Shutdown Rush\u00a0 | 4XC<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/gold-bitcoin-post-shutdown-rush\/\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-post-shutdown-rush\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/4xc.com\\\/news\\\/capital-markets-outlook\\\/gold-bitcoin-post-shutdown-rush\\\/\",\"name\":\"Gold &amp; 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