
{"id":54617,"date":"2025-09-30T14:22:02","date_gmt":"2025-09-30T11:22:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dev4xc.wpenginepowered.com\/?post_type=fxc_capital_markets&#038;p=54617"},"modified":"2025-09-30T14:40:13","modified_gmt":"2025-09-30T11:40:13","slug":"expecting-a-turnaround-check-this-before-nfp","status":"publish","type":"fxc_capital_markets","link":"https:\/\/4xc.com\/pt-br\/news\/capital-markets-outlook\/expecting-a-turnaround-check-this-before-nfp\/","title":{"rendered":"Expecting a Turnaround? Check This Before NFP"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>KEY POINTS<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li><strong>Government shutdown watch: <\/strong>Ongoing brinkmanship is a safe-haven tailwind for gold and a potential volatility source for risk assets; any funding lapse that dents growth expectations would also anchor yields.\u2028<\/li><li><strong>What to watch this week:<\/strong> ADP (Wed), Jobless Claims \/ Factory Orders (Thu), NFP (Fri), ISM Services (Fri).\u2028<\/li><li><strong>Technical pivot levels (gold): <\/strong>Resistance $3,879.64 \u2192 $4,000, support $3,717.52; momentum confirmation above last week\u2019s $3,791.26 high.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-headline-block\" style=\"background-color: #0a1c38; color: #ffffff;\"><h2>XAUUSD and Bitcoin \u2014 Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin-bottom:32px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/XAUUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>GOLD (XAUUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Gold<\/strong> enters NFP week with strong upside momentum, supported by falling U.S. yields, a softer dollar, heavy official-sector buying and ETF inflows, and an elevated probability of near-term Fed rate cuts. Technically, the tape is trending; the next resistance is $3,879.64 and then the psychological $4,000. First key support sits near $3,717.52.<br><br><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> remains range-bound on the daily chart. Into NFP it\u2019s tactically bullish on easing real yields and rising rate-cut odds, despite fragile risk sentiment tied to U.S. shutdown risk. A weak labor print would likely extend the lower-real-yield impulse that supports both gold and crypto; a hot print risks a USD\/real-yield rebound and a pause in the metals\/crypto bid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"531\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-1-1024x531.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54618\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-1-1024x531.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-1-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-1-768x398.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-1.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: TradingView)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">The outlook for gold remains Bullish since our last week\u2019s analysis but longs are getting overcrowded at the new All Time Highs. A reversal is expected soon. Cooling jobs and wages into NFP keep real yields capped, a historically supportive regime for bullion. The rate-cut path plus shutdown risk further buttress safe-haven bids. Uptrend intact; momentum confirmed on a sustained hold above last week\u2019s $3,791.26 swing high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 8px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Forecast: <\/strong>Bullish on dips while the market holds above $3,830; momentum add on a clean daily\/4-hour hold above $3,879; initial take-profit into $3,900.<br><br><strong>Invalidation: <\/strong>sustained break below $3,730.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:40px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin-top:32px; color: #000D22\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 30px; height: 30px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/BTCUSDxx.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN (BTCUSD)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Bitcoin<\/strong> remains range-bound on the daily chart but constructive into NFP as macro liquidity expectations (rate-cut odds) and risk sentiment improve. <br>\u2028\u2028<br>A benign or weak labor print would likely extend the \u201clower-real-yield\u201d impulse that benefits both gold and crypto; a hot print risks a USD\/real-yield rebound and a pause in the metals\/crypto bid.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>WHAT MATTERS NOW<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li><strong>Event-risk translation:<\/strong> A soft NFP should favor continued risk-on\/\u201cliquidity hopes,\u201d while a hot NFP risks a USD\/rates squeeze that tempers BTC\u2019s bounce.\u2028<\/li><li><strong>Rates &amp; USD matter:<\/strong> Lower real yields and a softer dollar typically ease financial conditions and support risk assets\u2014including BTC. The same cut-pricing that aids gold is supportive for crypto beta into NFP.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"532\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-2-1024x532.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54623\" srcset=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-2-1024x532.png 1024w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-2-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-2-768x399.png 768w, https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Expecting-a-Turnaround-Check-This-Before-NFP-chart-2.png 1125w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: TradingView)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-group\"><div class=\"wp-block-group__inner-container is-layout-constrained wp-block-group-is-layout-constrained\">\n<p style=\"font-family: Glancyr !important; font-size: 14px; font-weight: 1000; display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 5px; margin:32px 0px 8px 0px; color: #000D22\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"24\" height=\"24\" class=\"wp-image-54250\" style=\"width: 20px; height: 25px\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/keep.png\" alt=\"\"> <strong>BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\"><strong>Structure remains range-to-up on the broader daily view (per attached chart):<\/strong> successive higher swing lows since Q2, with supply layered around prior summer highs. A decisive daily close above the recent congestion would target the next major swing highs; failure would keep the range intact.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:16px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"fxc-key-takeaways-block\" style=\"background-color: #f5f5f5;\"><h3>BOTTOM LINE \/ WHAT TO WATCH<\/h3><ul class=\"fxc-takeaways-list\"><li><strong>Gold (this week):<\/strong> Base case favors a break-and-extend toward $3,900\u20134,000 on a soft\/inline labor print. A hot surprise likely delays\u2014but does not invalidate\u2014the larger uptrend unless support fails.<\/li><li><strong>Bitcoin (this week):<\/strong> Soft\/inline NFP \u2192 attempt at the range highs; hot NFP \u2192 range persists, tactically fade rips until USD\/rates settle.<\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:28px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">THE WEEK AHEAD<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:14px\">Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by <strong>Acuity<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-horizontal is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button is-style-fill\" style=\"padding: 0px !important\"><a class=\"button button-secondary-two\" href=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/acuity-economic-calendar\/calendar\/\" style=\"border-radius:5px\">OPEN CALENDAR<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<style>\nimg {\n    object-fit: contain;\n}\n@media (max-width: 600px) {\n    .wp-block-media-text.is-stacked-on-mobile>.wp-block-media-text__media {\n        grid-column: 1;\n        grid-row: 1;\n        max-width: 100px;\n        margin-bottom: 24px;\n    }\n    .wp-block-media-text>.wp-block-media-text__content {\n        padding: 0 !important;\n    }\n}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-media-text is-stacked-on-mobile\" style=\"grid-template-columns:15% auto\"><figure class=\"wp-block-media-text__media\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"140\" height=\"141\" src=\"https:\/\/4xc.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/about-author.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-54540 size-full\"\/><\/figure><div class=\"wp-block-media-text__content\">\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ABOUT THE AUTHOR<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:13px\">Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:60px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:12px\"><strong>PLEASE READ:<\/strong> This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold (XAUUSD) sits just shy of fresh records as traders lean into a September Fed cut after a notably weak August jobs report (payrolls +22k; jobless rate 4.3%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"fxc_market_category":[63],"fxc_market_tag":[],"class_list":["post-54617","fxc_capital_markets","type-fxc_capital_markets","status-publish","hentry","fxc_market_category-capital-markets-outlook"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Expecting a Turnaround? 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