CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Blind Flying: Trading the Week Without Hard Data A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 14.10.2025 KEY POINTSData blackout & the Fed: With NFP/CPI delayed by the shutdown, Powell’s remarks Tuesday are the week’s anchor; recent commentary has kept the door open to flexibility if growth or labor cool further. Markets have leaned dovish in the vacuum, which supports gold. Geopolitics & tariffs: Renewed U.S.–China tariff talk and broader political noise are re-stoking risk aversion—typically bullish for gold as a hedge. Watch for any escalation around Washington/Beijing headlines.. Earnings season begins: Big U.S. banks kick off results; strong credit and upbeat guidance could lift equities/risk appetite (marginally negative for gold intraday). Disappointments or guidance cuts would likely flip the flow back into havens.Hamas to release hostages in Gaza conflict milestone The U.S. government shutdown has postponed major releases (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, NFP, etc.). Markets are operating on “instruments”—Fed guidance, price action in real yields/DXY, and headlines—rather than hard prints. Chair Powell speaks Tuesday, effectively setting the week’s base case. Trade rhetoric has re-ignited as new U.S.–China tariff threats hit risk appetite across Asia. U.S. bank earnings (Tue–Fri) and the IMF/World Bank Meetings add further headline risk. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold is further advancing in a rising channel near the $4,100 price level as traders operate through a temporary U.S. data blackout from the government shutdown. This “blind flying” adds more to risk premium which helps the rally. In the absence of NFP/CPI, markets are anchoring to Fed communication and headlines. Chair Powell’s Tuesday remarks and the earnings season kickoff are the decisive near-term catalysts. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) The trading regime is defined by a data blackout: with the U.S. government shutdown, the usual macro anchors (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, NFP) are postponed, so traders are flying by news headlines and Fed communications mostly. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Headline risk remains the greatest threat for gold’s performance. Strategy: Tactical bias: Buy-the-dip while above 3,960; fade spikes only if Powell turns hawkish.Rationale: Policy uncertainty + headline risk + tariff chatter keep the hedge bid alive; without hard data, the market tends to overweight Fed tone and geopolitics—both asymmetrically supportive of gold unless Powell leans firmly restrictive. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin’s latest slide was a classic macro shock: it broke lower immediately after President Trump announced plans for 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and fresh U.S. export controls, a dramatic re-escalation of the trade conflict that hit risk assets across Asia before Europe and the U.S. opened.Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities tumbled, gold spiked to fresh highs on haven demand, and BTC sank sharply—printing an ~8% intraday drop (lows near $105k–$106k) before stabilizing as headlines softened. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY ON DIPS. Bitcoin is rebuilding after a tariff-shock flush that followed the White House’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which sparked broad risk-off, a stronger dollar, and an $19B+ wipeout in crypto positioning before prices stabilized. In short: policy shock → deleveraging → mechanical cascade, not a structural break. The rebound since then reflects some cooling of immediate trade fears and dip-buying once forced sellers were cleared. But headline risk stays elevated: Beijing has warned it will retaliate, keeping volatility sensitive to the next tariff headline. Outlook: Choppy rebuild. Absent fresh escalation, tariffs remain a headline overhang but not a daily drag. Real yields stay contained on cautious Fed rhetoric; BTC works higher within a broad 112k–122k range, with a clean daily close above ~122k opening 126k–131k as ETF inflows re-assert. BOTTOM LINE GOLD (XAUUSD) Bias remains constructively bullish while price holds 3,990. Pullbacks around 3,990 are buyable with risk defined just beneath 3,960; momentum only warrants adds on a daily close above 4,070, which unlocks 4,095–4,160.A loss of 3,960, and especially a daily close below 3,900, shifts the stance to neutral and points to a deeper channel check. Real yields and the USD remain the swing drivers; absent a hawkish Powell pivot, the upside skew persists. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Following the tariff-shock flush, bias is constructively bullish while 112k holds. Dips into 112–115k can be accumulated with a hard stop below 109k; a daily close above 122k confirms momentum toward 126–131k with a stretch toward ~135k if USD/real yields ease. A decisive break below 109k opens ~104k; renewed tariff escalation or a hawkish Powell tone would cap rallies until 122k is reclaimed. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Blind Flying: Trading the Week Without Hard Data A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 14.10.2025 KEY POINTSData blackout & the Fed: With NFP/CPI delayed by the shutdown, Powell’s remarks Tuesday are the week’s anchor; recent commentary has kept the door open to flexibility if growth or labor cool further. Markets have leaned dovish in the vacuum, which supports gold. Geopolitics & tariffs: Renewed U.S.–China tariff talk and broader political noise are re-stoking risk aversion—typically bullish for gold as a hedge. Watch for any escalation around Washington/Beijing headlines.. Earnings season begins: Big U.S. banks kick off results; strong credit and upbeat guidance could lift equities/risk appetite (marginally negative for gold intraday). Disappointments or guidance cuts would likely flip the flow back into havens.Hamas to release hostages in Gaza conflict milestone The U.S. government shutdown has postponed major releases (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, NFP, etc.). Markets are operating on “instruments”—Fed guidance, price action in real yields/DXY, and headlines—rather than hard prints. Chair Powell speaks Tuesday, effectively setting the week’s base case. Trade rhetoric has re-ignited as new U.S.–China tariff threats hit risk appetite across Asia. U.S. bank earnings (Tue–Fri) and the IMF/World Bank Meetings add further headline risk. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold is further advancing in a rising channel near the $4,100 price level as traders operate through a temporary U.S. data blackout from the government shutdown. This “blind flying” adds more to risk premium which helps the rally. In the absence of NFP/CPI, markets are anchoring to Fed communication and headlines. Chair Powell’s Tuesday remarks and the earnings season kickoff are the decisive near-term catalysts. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) The trading regime is defined by a data blackout: with the U.S. government shutdown, the usual macro anchors (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales, NFP) are postponed, so traders are flying by news headlines and Fed communications mostly. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Headline risk remains the greatest threat for gold’s performance. Strategy: Tactical bias: Buy-the-dip while above 3,960; fade spikes only if Powell turns hawkish.Rationale: Policy uncertainty + headline risk + tariff chatter keep the hedge bid alive; without hard data, the market tends to overweight Fed tone and geopolitics—both asymmetrically supportive of gold unless Powell leans firmly restrictive. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bitcoin’s latest slide was a classic macro shock: it broke lower immediately after President Trump announced plans for 100% tariffs on Chinese exports and fresh U.S. export controls, a dramatic re-escalation of the trade conflict that hit risk assets across Asia before Europe and the U.S. opened.Hong Kong and mainland Chinese equities tumbled, gold spiked to fresh highs on haven demand, and BTC sank sharply—printing an ~8% intraday drop (lows near $105k–$106k) before stabilizing as headlines softened. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY ON DIPS. Bitcoin is rebuilding after a tariff-shock flush that followed the White House’s threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, which sparked broad risk-off, a stronger dollar, and an $19B+ wipeout in crypto positioning before prices stabilized. In short: policy shock → deleveraging → mechanical cascade, not a structural break. The rebound since then reflects some cooling of immediate trade fears and dip-buying once forced sellers were cleared. But headline risk stays elevated: Beijing has warned it will retaliate, keeping volatility sensitive to the next tariff headline. Outlook: Choppy rebuild. Absent fresh escalation, tariffs remain a headline overhang but not a daily drag. Real yields stay contained on cautious Fed rhetoric; BTC works higher within a broad 112k–122k range, with a clean daily close above ~122k opening 126k–131k as ETF inflows re-assert. BOTTOM LINE GOLD (XAUUSD) Bias remains constructively bullish while price holds 3,990. Pullbacks around 3,990 are buyable with risk defined just beneath 3,960; momentum only warrants adds on a daily close above 4,070, which unlocks 4,095–4,160.A loss of 3,960, and especially a daily close below 3,900, shifts the stance to neutral and points to a deeper channel check. Real yields and the USD remain the swing drivers; absent a hawkish Powell pivot, the upside skew persists. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Following the tariff-shock flush, bias is constructively bullish while 112k holds. Dips into 112–115k can be accumulated with a hard stop below 109k; a daily close above 122k confirms momentum toward 126–131k with a stretch toward ~135k if USD/real yields ease. A decisive break below 109k opens ~104k; renewed tariff escalation or a hawkish Powell tone would cap rallies until 122k is reclaimed. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.