CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold Near $4K, Bitcoin Builds Momentum: Positioning for the Next Move A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 08.10.2025 KEY POINTSData blackout / timing risk: Many official releases pause or slip. Calendars become provisional; publish dates are subject to change and can move at short notice. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls): Currently expected Friday (according to BLS), but the print and/or release timing are subject to change pending official scheduling. Gold (XAUUSD) implications: Data uncertainty + political risk can support hedge demand; if shutdown headlines hit risk sentiment and real yields ease, dips are sponsored. Bitcoin (BTC) implications: Macro cue-loss shifts focus to flows/liquidity Gold enters NFP week with strong upside momentum, supported by falling U.S. yields, a softer dollar, heavy official-sector buying and ETF inflows, and an elevated probability of near-term Fed rate cuts. Technically, the tape is trending; the next resistance is $3,879.64 and then the psychological $4,000. First key support sits near $3,717.52. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold extends a vertical advance after a clean breakout, supported by persistent official-sector buying, improving ETF flows, and softer real-yield impulses. Bitcoin remains constructive after a channel breakout; dips are being sponsored by liquidity/ETF demand. Base case for both: trend-respecting consolidation with buy-the-dip bias, while staying disciplined around data-driven volatility. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) A buy-the-dip bias remains appropriate while XAUUSD holds above ~$3,990. The trend is stair-stepping rather than blowing off: brief data-driven pullbacks have been met by demand as U.S. real yields ease at the margin, the USD stalls, and official-sector (central-bank) buying alongside firmer ETF flows underpins the tape.Ongoing tariff/geopolitical risk and intermittent U.S. fiscal headlines sustain a hedge premium, favouring shallow, sponsored retracements over trend reversals. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Headline risk remains the greatest threat for gold’s performance.Strategy: Bias: Buy the dip while above ~$3.99k. Add-on trigger: Only add on 4h/daily closes back above $4,060–$4,080 (confirms trend resumption). Targets: $4.10–$4.12k initial; stretch to $4.16–$4.20k if real yields slip and ETF demand stays constructive. Invalidation: Sustained break < ~$3,955 (close basis) → step aside; reassess at $3,92x–$3,88x demand. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) A buy-the-dip bias remains appropriate while BTCUSD holds above the prior breakout shelfnear ~$113k. The market has transitioned from a multi-week descending channel into an impulsive advance, followed by orderly consolidation. Pullbacks have been absorbed as spot-ETF net demand, benign dollar-liquidity conditions, and contained funding support the tape. Correlation to real yields/USTs is looser than for gold but still relevant: tighter USD liquidity or a sharp rise in real yields can truncate momentum. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY ON DIPS. Structure remains range-to-up on the broader daily view (per attached chart): successive higher swing lows since Q2, with supply layered around prior summer highs. A decisive daily close above the recent congestion would target the next major swing highs; failure would keep the range intact. BOTTOM LINEWith the U.S. government shut down and major data releases provisional, let real yields, the USD, and liquidity/flow tone be the guide.Gold: Keep a buy-the-dip stance while the uptrend structure holds. Add only on confirmed strength; step back if the market loses the prior breakout shelf and starts closing weak. Bitcoin: Prefer staggered dips into mapped demand; add only after a clean reclaim of momentum. Avoid chasing into headline volatility; de-risk if the breakout base gives way. Risk cues: Sudden USD firming or a pop in real yields, negative turns in ETF/spot flows, stretched funding/leverage, and sharp risk-off in equities.Tactics: Smaller size into headlines, wait for close-based confirmation, pre-define your line in the sand, and let flows—not opinions—dictate how hard to press the bias. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.
CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Gold Near $4K, Bitcoin Builds Momentum: Positioning for the Next Move A Fundamental and Technical Analysis by Tamas Horvath 08.10.2025 KEY POINTSData blackout / timing risk: Many official releases pause or slip. Calendars become provisional; publish dates are subject to change and can move at short notice. NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls): Currently expected Friday (according to BLS), but the print and/or release timing are subject to change pending official scheduling. Gold (XAUUSD) implications: Data uncertainty + political risk can support hedge demand; if shutdown headlines hit risk sentiment and real yields ease, dips are sponsored. Bitcoin (BTC) implications: Macro cue-loss shifts focus to flows/liquidity Gold enters NFP week with strong upside momentum, supported by falling U.S. yields, a softer dollar, heavy official-sector buying and ETF inflows, and an elevated probability of near-term Fed rate cuts. Technically, the tape is trending; the next resistance is $3,879.64 and then the psychological $4,000. First key support sits near $3,717.52. XAUUSD and Bitcoin — Fundamentals, Flows, and Tape GOLD (XAUUSD) Gold extends a vertical advance after a clean breakout, supported by persistent official-sector buying, improving ETF flows, and softer real-yield impulses. Bitcoin remains constructive after a channel breakout; dips are being sponsored by liquidity/ETF demand. Base case for both: trend-respecting consolidation with buy-the-dip bias, while staying disciplined around data-driven volatility. Chart 1: XAUUSD Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) A buy-the-dip bias remains appropriate while XAUUSD holds above ~$3,990. The trend is stair-stepping rather than blowing off: brief data-driven pullbacks have been met by demand as U.S. real yields ease at the margin, the USD stalls, and official-sector (central-bank) buying alongside firmer ETF flows underpins the tape.Ongoing tariff/geopolitical risk and intermittent U.S. fiscal headlines sustain a hedge premium, favouring shallow, sponsored retracements over trend reversals. OUTLOOK: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH Headline risk remains the greatest threat for gold’s performance.Strategy: Bias: Buy the dip while above ~$3.99k. Add-on trigger: Only add on 4h/daily closes back above $4,060–$4,080 (confirms trend resumption). Targets: $4.10–$4.12k initial; stretch to $4.16–$4.20k if real yields slip and ETF demand stays constructive. Invalidation: Sustained break < ~$3,955 (close basis) → step aside; reassess at $3,92x–$3,88x demand. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) A buy-the-dip bias remains appropriate while BTCUSD holds above the prior breakout shelfnear ~$113k. The market has transitioned from a multi-week descending channel into an impulsive advance, followed by orderly consolidation. Pullbacks have been absorbed as spot-ETF net demand, benign dollar-liquidity conditions, and contained funding support the tape. Correlation to real yields/USTs is looser than for gold but still relevant: tighter USD liquidity or a sharp rise in real yields can truncate momentum. Chart 2: Bitcoin Outlook (Source: The AlphaFX, TradingView, 2025) BITCOIN OUTLOOK: STRONG BUY ON DIPS. Structure remains range-to-up on the broader daily view (per attached chart): successive higher swing lows since Q2, with supply layered around prior summer highs. A decisive daily close above the recent congestion would target the next major swing highs; failure would keep the range intact. BOTTOM LINEWith the U.S. government shut down and major data releases provisional, let real yields, the USD, and liquidity/flow tone be the guide.Gold: Keep a buy-the-dip stance while the uptrend structure holds. Add only on confirmed strength; step back if the market loses the prior breakout shelf and starts closing weak. Bitcoin: Prefer staggered dips into mapped demand; add only after a clean reclaim of momentum. Avoid chasing into headline volatility; de-risk if the breakout base gives way. Risk cues: Sudden USD firming or a pop in real yields, negative turns in ETF/spot flows, stretched funding/leverage, and sharp risk-off in equities.Tactics: Smaller size into headlines, wait for close-based confirmation, pre-define your line in the sand, and let flows—not opinions—dictate how hard to press the bias. THE WEEK AHEAD Keep tabs on all the events that may impact the markets through our AI-powered economic calendar, powered by Acuity. OPEN CALENDAR ABOUT THE AUTHOR Tamas Horvath is a former London fixed-income trader and the founder of Alpha FX Academy, where he delivers professional mentorship and training in forex, commodities, indices, and gold. PLEASE READ: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to trade. The author is an independent partner and not an employee or representative of 4XC. CFD trading involves significant risk and may result in substantial financial loss. 4XC accepts no liability for any losses incurred based on the content of this article. Readers should conduct independent research and seek professional advice before trading.